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College Basketball · 2026-27 · Preseason

AJ Dancler

South Florida · Guard · Senior · 6-2 · #11

Transfer from Coastal Carolina

#1391Overall
+0.08Projected impact
  • #703 guard in the country
  • #787 in the transfer portal
  • #754 mid-major player

Projected role · 2026-27

Projected starter (about 17 minutes a game) at South Florida, as a secondary scorer: a smaller role than he had at Coastal Carolina (33.1 min).

Projected minutes
17
Spot in the rotation
#4

From the Statboy preseason model. It updates once games start.

▸What is impact?

Impact is how many points per game a player adds to his team. 0 is an average player, so a plus number means he's better than average and a minus number means he's below. It's Statboy's own number, based on everything he does on the court and the level he played against.

Last season: the basics

2025-26 at Coastal Carolina: 32 games, 32 starts, 33.1 minutes a game.

MM # = his rank among the 841 mid-major guardson this season's rosters (300+ minutes last season).

  • Points per game15.789thMM #46
  • Rebounds per game5.695thMM #29
  • Assists per game2.059thMM #285
  • Steals per game0.848thMM #371
  • Blocks per game0.138thMM #372
  • Turnovers per game1.536thMM #546
  • Field goal %40.2%(168-418)37thMM #496
  • 3-point %39.6%(80-202)86thMM #108
  • Free throw %75.9%(85-112)47thMM #404

Last season: advanced

Percentiles compare him with every Division I guard who played 300+ minutes.

MM # = his rank among the 841 mid-major guardson this season's rosters (300+ minutes last season).

  • Usage rate24.8%style

    Share of his team's possessions he ends (shot, free throws or turnover) while on the floor

  • Offensive rating110.350thMM #356

    Points he produces per 100 possessions he uses

  • Defensive rating104.281stMM #144

    Points allowed per 100 possessions while he's on the floor (lower is better)

  • True shooting %53.6%43rdMM #431

    Scoring efficiency counting 3s and free throws

  • Effective FG %49.8%47thMM #403

    Field goal % with 3s worth 1.5 times a 2

  • Assist-to-turnover1.3344thMM #431

    Assists for every turnover

  • Offensive rebound %10.7%9thMM #771

    Share of his team's missed shots he rebounds while on the floor

  • Free-throw rate26.8%40thMM #495

    Free throws attempted per 100 field goal attempts

  • Win shares per 40.13275thMM #145

    Wins he created per 40 minutes played

Players like AJ Dancler

The closest matches among every guard in the country: all of last season's stats compared on the same scale, plus projected impact.

  • Rob Lee Jr.

    Western Michigan · G · Senior

    75%match

    Transfer from Lamar

    +0.23 impact · 16 pts · 3.2 reb · 2 ast

    Compare
  • Joe Sayler

    South Dakota State · G · Junior

    73%match

    Returning

    +0.07 impact · 14.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.4 ast

    Compare
  • Rasheed Jones

    Rutgers · G · Senior

    73%match

    Transfer from Coastal Carolina

    +0.14 impact · 14.7 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.8 ast

    Compare
  • Jah'Likai King

    Little Rock · G · Senior

    73%match

    Transfer from UMBC

    0.00 impact · 14 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast

    Compare
  • Lance Waddles

    Campbell · G · Senior

    72%match

    Transfer from Omaha

    +0.11 impact · 12.9 pts · 4.8 reb · 2.1 ast

    Compare
  • Jurian Dixon

    Virginia · G · Senior

    71%match

    Transfer from UC Irvine

    +0.52 impact · 15.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.5 ast

    Compare

Impact = how many points per game he adds to his team when he plays. 0 is an average player (Statboy's own number).