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College Basketball · 2026-27 · Preseason

Paul McNeil Jr.

NC State · Guard · Junior · 6-6 · #2

Returning

#99Overall
+1.52Projected impact
  • #39 guard in the country

Projected role · 2026-27

Projected starter (about 29 minutes a game) at NC State, as a floor spacer. Similar role to last season.

Projected minutes
29
Spot in the rotation
#2

From the Statboy preseason model. It updates once games start.

▸What is impact?

Impact is how many points per game a player adds to his team. 0 is an average player, so a plus number means he's better than average and a minus number means he's below. It's Statboy's own number, based on everything he does on the court and the level he played against.

Last season: the basics

2025-26 at NC State: 34 games, 32 starts, 28.7 minutes a game.

  • Points per game13.882nd
  • Rebounds per game3.569th
  • Assists per game0.815th
  • Steals per game0.629th
  • Blocks per game0.487th
  • Turnovers per game0.495th
  • Field goal %43.3%(138-319)61st
  • 3-point %42.7%(105-246)95th
  • Free throw %82.4%(89-108)76th

Last season: advanced

Percentiles compare him with every Division I guard who played 300+ minutes.

  • Usage rate19.9%style

    Share of his team's possessions he ends (shot, free throws or turnover) while on the floor

  • Offensive rating134.699th

    Points he produces per 100 possessions he uses

  • Defensive rating115.516th

    Points allowed per 100 possessions while he's on the floor (lower is better)

  • True shooting %64.1%96th

    Scoring efficiency counting 3s and free throws

  • Effective FG %59.7%95th

    Field goal % with 3s worth 1.5 times a 2

  • Assist-to-turnover2.0079th

    Assists for every turnover

  • Offensive rebound %22.5%54th

    Share of his team's missed shots he rebounds while on the floor

  • Free-throw rate33.9%60th

    Free throws attempted per 100 field goal attempts

  • Win shares per 40.15688th

    Wins he created per 40 minutes played

Players like Paul McNeil Jr.

The closest matches among every guard in the country: all of last season's stats compared on the same scale, plus projected impact.

  • Kevin Overton

    Auburn · G · Senior

    76%match

    Returning

    +1.12 impact · 14.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast

    Compare
  • Braeden Carrington

    Wisconsin · G · Senior

    76%match

    Returning

    +0.92 impact · 8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast

    Compare
  • TJ Nadeau

    Tulane · G · Junior

    74%match

    Transfer from Detroit Mercy

    +0.38 impact · 13.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast

    Compare
  • Donovan Atwell

    Texas Tech · G · Senior

    71%match

    Returning

    +1.64 impact · 13.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.8 ast

    Compare
  • Trey Autry

    Wisconsin · G · Senior

    70%match

    Transfer from George Washington

    +0.61 impact · 10.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast

    Compare
  • Damarion Dennis

    Texas Tech · G · Junior

    69%match

    Transfer from Wyoming

    +0.92 impact · 11.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.3 ast

    Compare

Impact = how many points per game he adds to his team when he plays. 0 is an average player (Statboy's own number).