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College Basketball · 2026-27 · Preseason

Justus McNair

Valparaiso · Guard · Junior · 6-3 · #1

Returning

#1548Overall
+0.03Projected impact
  • #777 guard in the country
  • #879 mid-major player

Projected role · 2026-27

Projected starter (about 18 minutes a game) at Valparaiso, as a secondary scorer. Similar role to last season.

Projected minutes
18
Spot in the rotation
#4

From the Statboy preseason model. It updates once games start.

▸What is impact?

Impact is how many points per game a player adds to his team. 0 is an average player, so a plus number means he's better than average and a minus number means he's below. It's Statboy's own number, based on everything he does on the court and the level he played against.

Last season: the basics

2025-26 at Valparaiso: 32 games, 3 starts, 18 minutes a game.

MM # = his rank among the 841 mid-major guardson this season's rosters (300+ minutes last season).

  • Points per game7.942ndMM #425
  • Rebounds per game1.818thMM #648
  • Assists per game1.023rdMM #604
  • Steals per game0.629thMM #532
  • Blocks per game0.138thMM #372
  • Turnovers per game0.971stMM #233
  • Field goal %43.6%(85-195)63rdMM #293
  • 3-point %34.8%(23-66)57thMM #326
  • Free throw %74.4%(61-82)40thMM #467

Last season: advanced

Percentiles compare him with every Division I guard who played 300+ minutes.

MM # = his rank among the 841 mid-major guardson this season's rosters (300+ minutes last season).

  • Usage rate23.3%style

    Share of his team's possessions he ends (shot, free throws or turnover) while on the floor

  • Offensive rating111.855thMM #314

    Points he produces per 100 possessions he uses

  • Defensive rating108.756thMM #360

    Points allowed per 100 possessions while he's on the floor (lower is better)

  • True shooting %55.0%54thMM #348

    Scoring efficiency counting 3s and free throws

  • Effective FG %49.5%45thMM #423

    Field goal % with 3s worth 1.5 times a 2

  • Assist-to-turnover1.1833rdMM #536

    Assists for every turnover

  • Offensive rebound %19.3%40thMM #525

    Share of his team's missed shots he rebounds while on the floor

  • Free-throw rate42.1%78thMM #191

    Free throws attempted per 100 field goal attempts

  • Win shares per 40.11865thMM #206

    Wins he created per 40 minutes played

Players like Justus McNair

The closest matches among every guard in the country: all of last season's stats compared on the same scale, plus projected impact.

  • Ta'Zir Smith

    Robert Morris · G · Junior

    73%match

    Returning

    -0.01 impact · 6.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.4 ast

    Compare
  • Bryce Heard

    Wichita State · G · Junior

    71%match

    Transfer from Dayton

    +0.18 impact · 6.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.8 ast

    Compare
  • Josiah Shackelford

    Bowling Green · G · Junior

    71%match

    Returning

    +0.27 impact · 11.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.9 ast

    Compare
  • Jordan Marsh

    Temple · G · Senior

    71%match

    Transfer from USC

    +0.33 impact · 7.2 pts · 2 reb · 1.9 ast

    Compare
  • Trevor Hennig

    East Tennessee State · G · Junior

    70%match

    Transfer from Weber State

    +0.02 impact · 10 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.6 ast

    Compare
  • Royal Blue Smith

    Arkansas State · G · Sophomore

    70%match

    Returning

    -0.01 impact · 5.4 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.1 ast

    Compare

Impact = how many points per game he adds to his team when he plays. 0 is an average player (Statboy's own number).