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Week 12 · Game preview · Sat 4:00 PM ET

Northern Illinois

0-9 · Mountain West · Away

at

North Dakota State

7-2 · Mountain West · Home

Statboy projection

North Dakota State by 26.5

96% to win

Northern Illinois 4%North Dakota State 96%

From the Statboy Power Rankings, with home field counted.

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Projection, key ratings and a player to watch for each team.

Rankings

Northern IllinoisNorth Dakota State
#138Résumé rank#40
-21.7#137Power rating+2.8#73
-5.9#123Offense-3.7#106
-11.2#137Defense+6.8#35
-0.8#122Special teams+0.5#58

Small numbers are national ranks (1 = best). The better team in each row is bold.

Team stats

Northern IllinoisNorth Dakota State
16.6#136Points per game28.1#70
36.8#135Points allowed11.9#2
-0.00#124Offense EPA/play0.05#105
0.31#137Defense EPA/play-0.02#29
38.9%#110Offense success rate38.0%#119
49.7%#136Defense success rate38.3%#49
5.2#113Yards per play5.4#102
33.3%#1203rd down39.7%#76
55.9%#127Red zone TD rate58.7%#107
12.0%#122Havoc created16.5%#32
-6.0#122Turnover margin9.0#8

This season. Small numbers are national ranks (1 = best on that side of the ball).

Players to watch

Northern Illinois

North Dakota State

Each team's most valuable player on offense and on defense this season, plus the next most valuable (#rank at his position).

Recent results

Northern Illinois

North Dakota State