Power Rankings
Who is best right now.
-13.6points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I team
Last week: -11.4 (#283)
Preseason: #283
Full Power Rankings → Compare to another teamRating breakdown
Adjusted for every opponent and home court. Power = offense minus defense.
Projected record
14-17
- Conference record
- 8-8
- Conference title
- 5%
- Outright title
- 2%
- Luck
- -0.3
Actual results so far plus the rest of the seasonplayed out 10,000 times with the win chance for each game (non-Division I opponents count as 97% wins). The title is the regular-season crown; conference tournaments aren't included. Later rounds of holiday tournaments are added once the opponent is known.
Why #283 in the preseason
What the computer saw going in
- →Last season: #202 in the country (-3.0), 24-9.
- →8% of last season's minutes are back.
- →2 transfers in, led by Flash Burton (Rider, 15.1 ppg), Austin Cross (Troy, 3.6 ppg). Transfers moving up a level are counted cautiously.
- →Lost Ace Valentine (11.9 ppg, now at Robert Morris), DJ Armstrong Jr. (13.3 ppg), Jah'Likai King (14 ppg, now at Little Rock).
The preseason rating counts for about five games, then real results take over.
Teams like UMBC
The closest matches across all 365 Division I teams, based on the current ratings.
This season
Everyone who has played, most minutes first: per-game numbers from the box scores, updated after every game.
| Player | G · GS | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash BurtonG · Junior · #3573 ranked | 2 · 2 | 30.5 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 32.1 (9-28) | 40.0 (2-5) | 100.0 (4-4) |
| Aidan AbleG · Freshman · #3126 ranked | 2 · 2 | 29.5 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 42.9 (9-21) | 33.3 (4-12) | 50.0 (1-2) |
| Devin CeaserG · Senior · #3350 ranked | 2 · 2 | 28.0 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 33.3 (11-33) | 20.0 (2-10) | 88.9 (8-9) |
| Riley JacobsF · Sophomore · #1327 ranked | 2 · 2 | 27.0 | 13.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 50.0 (8-16) | 50.0 (1-2) | 83.3 (10-12) |
| Jovan RisticG · Junior · #3478 ranked | 2 · 2 | 26.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 (3-6) | 50.0 (1-2) | 66.7 (2-3) |
| Carlos VarelaG · Freshman · #3832 ranked | 2 · 0 | 23.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 50.0 (2-4) | 50.0 (1-2) | 100.0 (3-3) |
| JP NdongF · Sophomore · #3761 ranked | 2 · 0 | 13.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 33.3 (2-6) | 25.0 (1-4) | 0.0 (0-1) |
| Steven HuanF · Freshman | 2 · 0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 (0-1) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
| Evan MortonG · Sophomore | 1 · 0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Alpha BarryF · Junior | 2 · 0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 (2-5) | 0.0 (0-2) | — (0-0) |
| Jaiden ReynoldsG · Junior | 2 · 0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 (0-3) | 0.0 (0-2) | 100.0 (2-2) |
Projected rotation
The preseason model's minutes projection for each player with a track record (college stats or a recruiting rank), most minutes first. Players without one aren't projected here; This season above lists everyone who has played.
| Player | How he got here | Proj. min | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin CrossG · Sophomore |  Transfer from Troy | 18 | 3.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast |
| Flash BurtonG · Junior |  Transfer from Rider | 17 | 15.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.9 ast |
| Riley JacobsF · Sophomore |  Returning | 17 | 4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast |
| Devin CeaserG · Senior | Returning | 5 | 4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast |
Gone from last season: Ace Valentine (11.9 ppg, to 
Robert Morris), DJ Armstrong Jr. (13.3 ppg), Jah'Likai King (14 ppg, to 
Little Rock), Josh Odunowo (8.4 ppg), Caden Diggs (10 ppg, to Troy), Jose Roberto Tanchyn (6.5 ppg, to 
San Diego)
Roster
Everyone on this season's roster, with this season's numbers for anyone who has played. Names link to player pages, ranked players first.
| # | Player | How he got here | Pos | Class | Ht / Wt | Hometown | This season | Last season | Rank · Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Riley Jacobs | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-10 · 220 | Woodbridge, VA | 13.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2.0 ast (2 G) | 4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast (32 G) | #1327 · +0.18 |
| 95 | Austin Cross | Transfer from Troy | G | Sophomore | 6-3 · 205 | Mansfield, TX | Hasn't played | 3.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast (34 G) | #2756 · -0.40 |
| 4 | Aidan Able | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-4 · 200 | Baltimore, MD | 11.5 pts · 3.0 reb · 3.0 ast (2 G) | — | #3126 · -0.54 |
| 13 | Devin Ceaser | Returning | G | Senior | 6-1 · 180 | Waldorf, MD | 16.0 pts · 7.0 reb · 1.0 ast (2 G) | 4.3 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.3 ast (3 G) | #3350 · -0.64 |
| 12 | Jovan Ristic | New to Division I | G | Junior | 6-5 · 215 | Belgrade, Serbia | 4.5 pts · 5.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | — | #3478 · -0.70 |
| 1 | Flash Burton | Transfer from Rider | G | Junior | 6-3 · 185 | Philadelphia, PA | 12.0 pts · 5.0 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 15.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.9 ast (29 G) | #3573 · -0.75 |
| 2 | JP Ndong | New to Division I | F | Sophomore | 6-7 · 200 | Malaga, Spain | 2.5 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | #3761 · -0.82 |
| 5 | Carlos Varela | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-4 · 190 | San Fernando, Spain | 4.0 pts · 3.0 reb · 2.0 ast (2 G) | — | #3832 · -0.86 |
| 10 | Steven Huan | Freshman | F | Freshman | 7-0 · 235 | Beijing, China | 0.0 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 3 | Evan Morton | New to Division I | G | Sophomore | 6-2 · 180 | Matthews, NC | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 21 | Alpha Barry | New to Division I | F | Junior | 6-9 · 215 | Queens, NY | 2.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 11 | Jaiden Reynolds | New to Division I | G | Junior | 6-6 · 200 | Syracuse, NY | 1.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 22 | Leo Ferry | New to Division I | G | Junior | 5-10 · 160 | Merrick, NY | Hasn't played | — | Not ranked yet |
| 15 | Taesyn Slating | New to Division I | G | Junior | 6-5 · 195 | Eden, NY | Hasn't played | — | Not ranked yet |
| 0 | Regimantas Ciunys | Returning | F | Senior | 6-6 · 190 | Vilnius, Lithuania | Hasn't played | — | Not ranked yet |
Schedule
Projected scores and win chances come from the current ratings and update every morning.
| Nov 2 |  atGeorge Mason | L54-82Box score → |
| Nov 5 |  atMaristAmerica East-Metro Challenge | L80-88Box score → |
| Still to play · computer projections | ||
| Nov 9 | vsMcDaniel(non-D1) | Upcoming |
| Nov 12 |  vsMorgan State410 Invitational | Projected 80-73UMBC: 73% to winUMBC: 73% to win Compare |
| Nov 14 | 410 InvitationalChampionship or placement game | Opponent TBD |
| Nov 16 |  vsIonaAmerica East-Metro Challenge | Projected 69-73UMBC: 36% to winUMBC: 36% to win Compare |
| Nov 19 |  atOhio State | Projected 64-91UMBC: 1% to winUMBC: 1% to win Compare |
| Nov 22 | vsLancaster Bible(non-D1) | Upcoming |
| Nov 24 |  atIowa | Projected 59-86UMBC: 1% to winUMBC: 1% to win Compare |
| Nov 27 |  atGeorge Washington | Projected 64-87UMBC: 2% to winUMBC: 2% to win Compare |
| Dec 2 |  atArmy | Projected 72-75UMBC: 40% to winUMBC: 40% to win Compare |
| Dec 5 |  atDelaware State | Projected 73-69UMBC: 63% to winUMBC: 63% to win Compare |
| Dec 8 |  vsBucknell | Projected 79-71UMBC: 78% to winUMBC: 78% to win Compare |
| Dec 12 |  atWagner | Projected 71-75UMBC: 38% to winUMBC: 38% to win Compare |
| Dec 22 |  atGrand Canyon | Projected 66-92UMBC: 1% to winUMBC: 1% to win Compare |
| Dec 29 |  vsCoppin State | Projected 77-68UMBC: 77% to winUMBC: 77% to win Compare |
| Jan 2 |  vsNJITConference | Projected 77-69UMBC: 75% to winUMBC: 75% to win Compare |
| Jan 7 |  atNew HampshireConference | Projected 68-73UMBC: 34% to winUMBC: 34% to win Compare |
| Jan 9 |  atMaineConference | Projected 71-72UMBC: 44% to winUMBC: 44% to win Compare |
| Jan 14 |  atBryantConference | Projected 73-72UMBC: 52% to winUMBC: 52% to win Compare |
| Jan 18 |  vsUAlbanyConference | Projected 76-72UMBC: 64% to winUMBC: 64% to win Compare |
| Jan 21 |  vsVermontConference | Projected 69-74UMBC: 33% to winUMBC: 33% to win Compare |
| Jan 23 |  vsUMass LowellConference | Projected 76-74UMBC: 56% to winUMBC: 56% to win Compare |
| Jan 28 |  atBinghamtonConference | Projected 72-73UMBC: 45% to winUMBC: 45% to win Compare |
| Feb 4 | vsBryantConference | Projected 76-69UMBC: 72% to winUMBC: 72% to win Compare |
| Feb 6 | atUAlbanyConference | Projected 73-75UMBC: 42% to winUMBC: 42% to win Compare |
| Feb 11 | vsMaineConference | Projected 74-69UMBC: 65% to winUMBC: 65% to win Compare |
| Feb 13 | vsNew HampshireConference | Projected 71-70UMBC: 55% to winUMBC: 55% to win Compare |
| Feb 18 | atVermontConference | Projected 66-77UMBC: 16% to winUMBC: 16% to win Compare |
| Feb 20 | atUMass LowellConference | Projected 73-78UMBC: 35% to winUMBC: 35% to win Compare |
| Feb 25 | atNJITConference | Projected 74-72UMBC: 55% to winUMBC: 55% to win Compare |
| Mar 2 | vsBinghamtonConference | Projected 75-70UMBC: 66% to winUMBC: 66% to win Compare |
Am. East standings
| # | Team | Conf | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Hampshire | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 2 | UMass Lowell | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | UAlbany | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 4 | Vermont | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 5 | Maine | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 6 | Binghamton | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Bryant | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 8 | UMBC | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 9 | NJIT | 0-0 | 0-2 |