College Basketball · Horizon · 2026-27
Northern Kentucky Norse
2-1 · Coach Darrin Horn
Power Rankings
#192▲8
Who is best right now.
-3.5points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I team
Last week: -3.6 (#200)
Preseason: #200
Full Power Rankings → Compare to another teamRating breakdown
Adjusted for every opponent and home court. Power = offense minus defense.
Projected record
20-12
- Conference record
- 12-8
- Conference title
- 6%
- Outright title
- 2%
- Luck
- +0.5
Actual results so far plus the rest of the seasonplayed out 10,000 times with the win chance for each game (non-Division I opponents count as 97% wins). The title is the regular-season crown; conference tournaments aren't included. Later rounds of holiday tournaments are added once the opponent is known.
Why #200 in the preseason
What the computer saw going in
- →Last season: #176 in the country (-0.9), 20-14.
- →24% of last season's minutes are back.
- →4 transfers in, led by Noah Pagotto (East Texas A&M, 10.4 ppg), Will Shortt (Niagara, 6.5 ppg), Eric Acker (La Salle, 5.8 ppg). Transfers moving up a level are counted cautiously.
- →Lost LJ Wells (15 ppg, now at Louisville), Dan Gherezgher (15.9 ppg), Donovan Oday (18.6 ppg, now at Troy).
The preseason rating counts for about five games, then real results take over.
Teams like Northern Kentucky
The closest matches across all 365 Division I teams, based on the current ratings.
This season
Everyone who has played, most minutes first: per-game numbers from the box scores, updated after every game.
| Player | G · GS | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric AckerG · Senior · #1545 ranked | 3 · 3 | 36.0 | 17.3 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 52.9 (18-34) | 18.2 (2-11) | 77.8 (14-18) |
| Willie FosterG · Freshman · #2137 ranked | 3 · 3 | 32.3 | 23.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 48.9 (22-45) | 38.9 (7-18) | 94.7 (18-19) |
| Noah PagottoF · Senior · #523 ranked | 3 · 3 | 31.7 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 69.2 (18-26) | 50.0 (1-2) | 66.7 (20-30) |
| B.J. Davis-RayG · Sophomore · #2196 ranked | 3 · 3 | 27.0 | 11.7 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 37.9 (11-29) | 46.2 (6-13) | 100.0 (7-7) |
| Donovan RakotonanaharyF · Junior · #1570 ranked | 3 · 0 | 19.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 80.0 (4-5) | — (0-0) | 75.0 (6-8) |
| Gabrielius JokubauskasG · Freshman · #3715 ranked | 3 · 0 | 18.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 16.7 (2-12) | 18.2 (2-11) | 100.0 (4-4) |
| Will ShorttF · Junior · #2184 ranked | 3 · 3 | 17.7 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 50.0 (2-4) | — (0-0) | 100.0 (4-4) |
| Ryan TolliverF · Sophomore · #2432 ranked | 3 · 0 | 13.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 28.6 (2-7) | 50.0 (1-2) | — (0-0) |
| Juanma RuizF · Sophomore | 2 · 0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| JJ ApathjangG · Sophomore | 2 · 0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 (1-2) | 50.0 (1-2) | — (0-0) |
| Bryce DarbyshireG · Senior · #2527 ranked | 1 · 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
Projected rotation
The preseason model's minutes projection for each player with a track record (college stats or a recruiting rank), most minutes first. Players without one aren't projected here; This season above lists everyone who has played.
| Player | How he got here | Proj. min | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan ElliottG · Sophomore |  Returning | 25 | 5.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.6 ast |
| Noah PagottoF · Senior |  Transfer from East Texas A&M | 20 | 10.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast |
| Will ShorttF · Junior |  Transfer from Niagara | 16 | 6.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast |
| Eric AckerG · Senior |  Transfer from La Salle | 16 | 5.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.7 ast |
| B.J. Davis-RayG · Sophomore |  Transfer from SMU | 16 | 1.2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.4 ast |
| Donovan RakotonanaharyF · Junior | Returning | 14 | 3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast |
| Bryce DarbyshireG · Senior | Returning | 9 | 1.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast |
| Ryan TolliverF · Sophomore | Returning | 8 | 1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast |
Gone from last season: LJ Wells (15 ppg, to 
Louisville), Dan Gherezgher (15.9 ppg), Donovan Oday (18.6 ppg, to 
Troy), Tae Dozier (8.6 ppg), Kael Robinson (14.4 ppg), Shawn Nelson (2.9 ppg)
Roster
Everyone on this season's roster, with this season's numbers for anyone who has played. Names link to player pages, ranked players first.
| # | Player | How he got here | Pos | Class | Ht / Wt | Hometown | This season | Last season | Rank · Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Noah Pagotto | Transfer from East Texas A&M | F | Senior | 6-8 · 215 | Port Macquarie, QLD | 19.0 pts · 7.0 reb · 1.3 ast (3 G) | 10.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 1.0 ast (32 G) | #523 · +0.84 |
| 6 | Ethan Elliott | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-1 · 190 | Perth, WA | Hasn't played | 5.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.6 ast (32 G) | #1409 · +0.14 |
| 2 | Eric Acker | Transfer from La Salle | G | Senior | 6-3 · 165 | New York, NY | 17.3 pts · 1.0 reb · 7.3 ast (3 G) | 5.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.7 ast (26 G) | #1545 · +0.08 |
| 10 | Donovan Rakotonanahary | Returning | F | Junior | 6-6 · 190 | Antananarivo, Madagascar | 4.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.3 ast (3 G) | 3.0 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast (32 G) | #1570 · +0.06 |
| 0 | Willie Foster | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-2 · 180 | Lima, OH | 23.0 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.7 ast (3 G) | — | #2137 · -0.17 |
| 7 | Will Shortt | Transfer from Niagara | F | Junior | 6-8 · 230 | Sydney, NSW | 2.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast (3 G) | 6.5 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast (30 G) | #2184 · -0.18 |
| 9 | B.J. Davis-Ray | Transfer from SMU | G | Sophomore | 6-6 · 195 | St. Louis, MO | 11.7 pts · 4.0 reb · 0.7 ast (3 G) | 1.2 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.4 ast (32 G) | #2196 · -0.19 |
| 1 | Ryan Tolliver | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-7 · 220 | Hartford, CT | 1.7 pts · 3.0 reb · 0.3 ast (3 G) | 1.0 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast (22 G) | #2432 · -0.27 |
| 4 | Bryce Darbyshire | Returning | G | Senior | 6-4 · 180 | Cincinnati, OH | 0.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | 1.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast (24 G) | #2527 · -0.31 |
| 8 | Gabrielius Jokubauskas | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-5 · 190 | Vilnius, Lithuania | 3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.0 ast (3 G) | — | #3715 · -0.81 |
| 5 | Patrick Otto Mae | Freshman | F | Freshman | 6-9 · 225 | Tallin, Estonia | Hasn't played | — | Not ranked yet |
| 22 | JJ Apathjang | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-4 · 185 | Salt Lake City, UT | 1.5 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 17 | Juanma Ruiz | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-9 · 200 | Bejar, Spain | 0.0 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
Schedule
Projected scores and win chances come from the current ratings and update every morning.
| Nov 2 |  vs (N)UTEP | W84-76Box score → |
| Nov 4 |  atSouth Dakota | W102-94Box score → |
| Nov 6 |  atTexas A&M | L67-104Box score → |
| Still to play · computer projections | ||
| Nov 10 |  atSaint Louis | Projected 73-96NKU: 2% to winNorthern Kentucky: 2% to win Compare |
| Nov 14 |  vsCentral Michigan | Projected 85-75NKU: 82% to winNorthern Kentucky: 82% to win Compare |
| Nov 19 | vsBerea(non-D1) | Upcoming |
| Nov 23 |  vsGeorgia Southern | Projected 85-77NKU: 75% to winNorthern Kentucky: 75% to win Compare |
| Nov 25 |  vsBellarmine | Projected 85-76NKU: 77% to winNorthern Kentucky: 77% to win Compare |
| Dec 2 |  atOaklandConference | Projected 80-82NKU: 44% to winNorthern Kentucky: 44% to win Compare |
| Dec 5 |  atDetroit MercyConference | Projected 81-76NKU: 66% to winNorthern Kentucky: 66% to win Compare |
| Dec 8 | vsDefiance(non-D1) | Upcoming |
| Dec 11 |  vsSouth Carolina State | Projected 87-71NKU: 92% to winNorthern Kentucky: 92% to win Compare |
| Dec 15 |  atEast Tennessee State | Projected 75-80NKU: 33% to winNorthern Kentucky: 33% to win Compare |
| Dec 20 |  atHarvard | Projected 74-80NKU: 28% to winNorthern Kentucky: 28% to win Compare |
| Dec 30 |  vsIU IndianapolisConference | Projected 89-77NKU: 85% to winNorthern Kentucky: 85% to win Compare |
| Jan 3 |  vsCleveland StateConference | Projected 90-76NKU: 89% to winNorthern Kentucky: 89% to win Compare |
| Jan 7 |  atGreen BayConference | Projected 76-81NKU: 33% to winNorthern Kentucky: 33% to win Compare |
| Jan 9 |  atMilwaukeeConference | Projected 82-79NKU: 59% to winNorthern Kentucky: 59% to win Compare |
| Jan 14 | atIU IndianapolisConference | Projected 86-80NKU: 68% to winNorthern Kentucky: 68% to win Compare |
| Jan 17 |  vsWright StateConference | Projected 80-85NKU: 35% to winNorthern Kentucky: 35% to win Compare |
| Jan 21 |  vsNorthern IllinoisConference | Projected 85-78NKU: 71% to winNorthern Kentucky: 71% to win Compare |
| Jan 23 | vsDetroit MercyConference | Projected 84-73NKU: 84% to winNorthern Kentucky: 84% to win Compare |
| Jan 28 |  atPurdue Fort WayneConference | Projected 80-79NKU: 52% to winNorthern Kentucky: 52% to win Compare |
| Jan 31 | atCleveland StateConference | Projected 86-79NKU: 74% to winNorthern Kentucky: 74% to win Compare |
| Feb 4 |  vsYoungstown StateConference | Projected 81-77NKU: 62% to winNorthern Kentucky: 62% to win Compare |
| Feb 7 | atNorthern IllinoisConference | Projected 82-81NKU: 50% to winNorthern Kentucky: 50% to win Compare |
| Feb 11 | vsMilwaukeeConference | Projected 85-76NKU: 79% to winNorthern Kentucky: 79% to win Compare |
| Feb 13 | vsGreen BayConference | Projected 79-78NKU: 54% to winNorthern Kentucky: 54% to win Compare |
| Feb 18 |  atRobert MorrisConference | Projected 76-77NKU: 46% to winNorthern Kentucky: 46% to win Compare |
| Feb 21 | atWright StateConference | Projected 77-88NKU: 17% to winNorthern Kentucky: 17% to win Compare |
| Feb 24 | vsOaklandConference | Projected 84-79NKU: 66% to winNorthern Kentucky: 66% to win Compare |
| Feb 27 | vsPurdue Fort WayneConference | Projected 83-76NKU: 73% to winNorthern Kentucky: 73% to win Compare |
Horizon standings
| # | Team | Conf | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wright State | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 2 | IU Indianapolis | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | Northern Kentucky | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| 4 | Green Bay | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 5 | Youngstown State | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 6 | Purdue Fort Wayne | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Cleveland State | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Northern Illinois | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oakland | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| 10 | Robert Morris | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 11 | Milwaukee | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 12 | Detroit Mercy | 0-0 | 0-1 |