College Basketball · Sun Belt · 2026-27
Arkansas State Red Wolves
1-1 · Coach Ryan Pannone
Power Rankings
#175▲44
Who is best right now.
-2.0points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I team
Last week: -4.8 (#219)
Preseason: #219
Full Power Rankings → Compare to another teamRating breakdown
Adjusted for every opponent and home court. Power = offense minus defense.
Projected record
20-11
- Conference record
- 11-7
- Conference title
- 27%
- Outright title
- 14%
- Luck
- +0.3
Actual results so far plus the rest of the seasonplayed out 10,000 times with the win chance for each game (non-Division I opponents count as 97% wins). The title is the regular-season crown; conference tournaments aren't included. Later rounds of holiday tournaments are added once the opponent is known.
Why #219 in the preseason
What the computer saw going in
- →Last season: #158 in the country (+0.8), 20-12.
- →6% of last season's minutes are back.
- →3 transfers in, led by Jordan Pyke (Incarnate Word, 12.6 ppg), Layne Taylor (Murray State, 8 ppg), Amadou Doumbia (North Carolina A&T, 3.4 ppg). Transfers moving up a level are counted cautiously.
- →1 ranked freshman: Aaron McGee (#254).
- →Lost Christian Harmon (12.8 ppg, now at Virginia), Chandler Jackson (10.7 ppg), Jalen Hampton (8.3 ppg).
The preseason rating counts for about five games, then real results take over.
Teams like Arkansas State
The closest matches across all 365 Division I teams, based on the current ratings.
This season
Everyone who has played, most minutes first: per-game numbers from the box scores, updated after every game.
| Player | G · GS | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layne TaylorG · Junior · #496 ranked | 2 · 2 | 32.5 | 16.5 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 48.0 (12-25) | 43.8 (7-16) | 100.0 (2-2) |
| Tameron FergusonG · Junior · #2181 ranked | 1 · 1 | 32.0 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 80.0 (8-10) | 60.0 (3-5) | 25.0 (1-4) |
| Royal Blue SmithG · Sophomore · #1762 ranked | 2 · 2 | 24.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 17.4 (4-23) | 16.7 (2-12) | 0.0 (0-4) |
| Amadou DoumbiaF · Junior · #1443 ranked | 2 · 2 | 22.5 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 33.3 (6-18) | 37.5 (3-8) | 14.3 (1-7) |
| Jordan PykeG · Sophomore · #696 ranked | 2 · 0 | 20.5 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 64.3 (9-14) | 60.0 (3-5) | 33.3 (2-6) |
| Chaz WatsonG · Junior · #3513 ranked | 2 · 1 | 20.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 27.8 (5-18) | 23.1 (3-13) | 60.0 (3-5) |
| Delang MuonF · Senior · #3381 ranked | 2 · 2 | 18.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 33.3 (3-9) | 0.0 (0-5) | 75.0 (3-4) |
| Aaron McGeeG · Freshman · #3079 ranked | 2 · 0 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 41.2 (7-17) | 44.4 (4-9) | 60.0 (3-5) |
| Aliou MaigaF · Sophomore · #3739 ranked | 2 · 0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 16.7 (1-6) | — (0-0) | 100.0 (2-2) |
| CJ GeathersG · Sophomore | 1 · 0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 (0-2) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Grayson BennettF · Sophomore | 2 · 0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Rho OmedF · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 (0-2) | 0.0 (0-2) | — (0-0) |
| Diggy ColemanG · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 100.0 (1-1) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Anthony HesterG · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 100.0 (1-1) | 100.0 (1-1) | — (0-0) |
Projected rotation
The preseason model's minutes projection for each player with a track record (college stats or a recruiting rank), most minutes first. Players without one aren't projected here; This season above lists everyone who has played.
| Player | How he got here | Proj. min | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Layne TaylorG · Junior |  Transfer from Murray State | 22 | 8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.3 ast |
| Jordan PykeG · Sophomore |  Transfer from Incarnate Word | 19 | 12.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast |
| Amadou DoumbiaF · Junior |  Transfer from North Carolina A&T | 16 | 3.4 pts · 4 reb · 0.2 ast |
| Royal Blue SmithG · Sophomore |  Returning | 13 | 5.4 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.1 ast |
| Aaron McGeeG · Freshman | Freshman · #254 recruit | 8 | — |
Gone from last season: Christian Harmon (12.8 ppg, to 
Virginia), Chandler Jackson (10.7 ppg), Jalen Hampton (8.3 ppg), Jaxon Ellingsworth (9.7 ppg), Matt Hayman (11.7 ppg), TJ Caldwell (9.4 ppg, to 
UAB)
Roster
Everyone on this season's roster, with this season's numbers for anyone who has played. Names link to player pages, ranked players first.
| # | Player | How he got here | Pos | Class | Ht / Wt | Hometown | This season | Last season | Rank · Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Layne Taylor | Transfer from Murray State | G | Junior | 5-11 · 176 | Farmington, AR | 16.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 5.0 ast (2 G) | 8.0 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.3 ast (31 G) | #496 · +0.87 |
| 7 | Jordan Pyke | Transfer from Incarnate Word | G | Sophomore | 6-7 · 205 | Greensboro, NC | 11.5 pts · 7.0 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 12.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.6 ast (27 G) | #696 · +0.66 |
| 14 | Amadou Doumbia | Transfer from North Carolina A&T | F | Junior | 7-0 · 212 | Bamako, Mali | 8.0 pts · 9.5 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | 3.4 pts · 4.0 reb · 0.2 ast (27 G) | #1443 · +0.12 |
| 3 | Royal Blue Smith | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-3 · 198 | Parkland, FL | 5.0 pts · 4.0 reb · 5.0 ast (2 G) | 5.4 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.1 ast (27 G) | #1762 · -0.02 |
| 2 | Tameron Ferguson | New to Division I | G | Junior | 6-4 · 179 | St. Cloud, MN | 20.0 pts · 7.0 reb · 3.0 ast (1 G) | — | #2181 · -0.18 |
| 1 | Aaron McGee | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-3 · 179 | Melbourne, FL | 10.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.0 ast (2 G) | — | #3079 · -0.52 |
| 4 | Delang Muon | New to Division I | F | Senior | 6-8 · 203 | Frankston, VIC | 4.5 pts · 3.0 reb · 1.0 ast (2 G) | — | #3381 · -0.65 |
| 0 | Chaz Watson | New to Division I | G | Junior | 6-3 · 187 | Kansas City, MO | 8.0 pts · 4.0 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | #3513 · -0.72 |
| 34 | Aliou Maiga | New to Division I | F | Sophomore | 6-8 · 204 | Bamako, Mali | 2.0 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | #3739 · -0.81 |
| 10 | Anthony Hester | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-6 · 200 | Little Rock, AR | 3.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 1.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 13 | Diggy Coleman | Freshman | G | Freshman | 5-11 · 193 | Dothan, AL | 2.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 1.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 43 | Moussa Sy | Freshman | F | Freshman | 7-0 · 204 | Dakar, Senegal | Hasn't played | — | Not ranked yet |
| 11 | Rho Omed | Freshman | F | Freshman | 6-11 · 210 | Calgary, AB | 0.0 pts · 2.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 5 | CJ Geathers | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-5 · 190 | Lithia Springs, GA | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 6 | Grayson Bennett | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-8 · 198 | Houston, TX | 0.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
Schedule
Projected scores and win chances come from the current ratings and update every morning.
| Nov 2 |  vsToledo | W71-70Box score → |
| Nov 6 |  at#22Alabama | L86-101Box score → |
| Still to play · computer projections | ||
| Nov 10 |  vsUT Martin | Projected 80-70ARST: 81% to winArkansas State: 81% to win Compare |
| Nov 14 | vsDillard(non-D1) | Upcoming |
| Nov 18 |  vsArkansas-Pine Bluff | Projected 89-69ARST: 95% to winArkansas State: 95% to win Compare |
| Nov 23 |  vs (N)Southern UtahFlorida International MTE | Projected 82-76ARST: 69% to winArkansas State: 69% to win Compare |
| Nov 24 |  vs (N)Long Beach StateFlorida International MTE | Projected 78-75ARST: 61% to winArkansas State: 61% to win Compare |
| Nov 25 |  atFlorida InternationalFlorida International MTE | Projected 79-82ARST: 41% to winArkansas State: 41% to win Compare |
| Nov 29 |  vsRice | Projected 81-73ARST: 75% to winArkansas State: 75% to win Compare |
| Dec 3 |  vsMissouri State | Projected 82-71ARST: 83% to winArkansas State: 83% to win Compare |
| Dec 6 |  vsLittle Rock | Projected 82-75ARST: 73% to winArkansas State: 73% to win Compare |
| Dec 12 |  atSt. Thomas-Minnesota | Projected 76-82ARST: 28% to winArkansas State: 28% to win Compare |
| Dec 16 |  vsSouth AlabamaConference | Projected 81-71ARST: 81% to winArkansas State: 81% to win Compare |
| Dec 19 |  vsGeorgia SouthernConference | Projected 84-75ARST: 79% to winArkansas State: 79% to win Compare |
| Dec 22 | vsCrowley's Ridge(non-D1) | Upcoming |
| Dec 31 |  atJames MadisonConference | Projected 77-81ARST: 36% to winArkansas State: 36% to win Compare |
| Jan 2 |  atMarshallConference | Projected 77-83ARST: 32% to winArkansas State: 32% to win Compare |
| Jan 7 |  vsApp StateConference | Projected 75-70ARST: 67% to winArkansas State: 67% to win Compare |
| Jan 9 |  vsGeorgia StateConference | Projected 80-75ARST: 67% to winArkansas State: 67% to win Compare |
| Jan 14 |  atLouisiana TechConference | Projected 76-75ARST: 54% to winArkansas State: 54% to win Compare |
| Jan 16 |  vsSouthern MissConference | Projected 81-73ARST: 74% to winArkansas State: 74% to win Compare |
| Jan 23 |  atOld DominionConference | Projected 73-77ARST: 38% to winArkansas State: 38% to win Compare |
| Jan 27 |  vsLouisianaConference | Projected 78-68ARST: 80% to winArkansas State: 80% to win Compare |
| Jan 30 |  atTroyConference | Projected 75-77ARST: 45% to winArkansas State: 45% to win Compare |
| Feb 3 | atSouth AlabamaConference | Projected 78-74ARST: 62% to winArkansas State: 62% to win Compare |
| Feb 10 |  vsUL MonroeConference | Projected 89-71ARST: 95% to winArkansas State: 95% to win Compare |
| Feb 13 | vsTroyConference | Projected 79-73ARST: 67% to winArkansas State: 67% to win Compare |
| Feb 17 | atLouisianaConference | Projected 75-72ARST: 61% to winArkansas State: 61% to win Compare |
| Feb 20 | atUL MonroeConference | Projected 86-74ARST: 85% to winArkansas State: 85% to win Compare |
| Feb 24 | atSouthern MissConference | Projected 77-76ARST: 53% to winArkansas State: 53% to win Compare |
| Feb 26 | vsLouisiana TechConference | Projected 79-71ARST: 75% to winArkansas State: 75% to win Compare |
Sun Belt standings
| # | Team | Conf | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Old Dominion | 0-0 | 3-0 |
| 2 | App State | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | Louisiana Tech | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 4 | Marshall | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 5 | Arkansas State | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 6 | Southern Miss | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Georgia Southern | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 8 | South Alabama | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 9 | UL Monroe | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 10 | Georgia State | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| 11 | James Madison | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 12 | Troy | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 13 |  Coastal Carolina | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 14 | Louisiana | 0-0 | 0-2 |