Power Rankings
#145▲9
Who is best right now.
+1.2points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I team
Last week: +0.2 (#154)
Preseason: #154
Full Power Rankings → Compare to another teamRating breakdown
Adjusted for every opponent and home court. Power = offense minus defense.
Projected record
16-15
- Conference record
- 12-10
- Conference title
- 2%
- Outright title
- 1%
- Luck
- -0.1
Actual results so far plus the rest of the seasonplayed out 10,000 times with the win chance for each game (non-Division I opponents count as 97% wins). The title is the regular-season crown; conference tournaments aren't included. Later rounds of holiday tournaments are added once the opponent is known.
Why #154 in the preseason
What the computer saw going in
- →Last season: #138 in the country (+2.7), 19-15.
- →36% of last season's minutes are back.
- →2 transfers in, led by Angel Montas Jr. (UMass Lowell, 15.8 ppg), Sean Jones (Marquette, 6.2 ppg). Transfers moving up a level are counted cautiously.
- →2 ranked freshmen: Rashaun Porter (#310), Jaylohn Allen (#327).
- →Lost Sonny Wilson (16.9 ppg, now at South Florida), Leroy Blyden Jr. (16.4 ppg, now at Kansas), Sean Craig (11.6 ppg).
The preseason rating counts for about five games, then real results take over.
Teams like Toledo
The closest matches across all 365 Division I teams, based on the current ratings.
This season
Everyone who has played, most minutes first: per-game numbers from the box scores, updated after every game.
| Player | G · GS | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mynor StrongG · Junior · #1419 ranked | 3 · 3 | 33.0 | 16.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 39.5 (17-43) | 18.2 (4-22) | 84.6 (11-13) |
| Sean JonesG · Senior · #529 ranked | 3 · 3 | 29.3 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 28.6 (6-21) | 33.3 (2-6) | 83.3 (10-12) |
| Jaylan OuwingaF · Junior · #1269 ranked | 3 · 3 | 29.0 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 38.5 (15-39) | 22.2 (2-9) | 71.4 (5-7) |
| Angel Montas Jr.G · Senior · #800 ranked | 3 · 1 | 25.7 | 14.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 48.7 (19-39) | 28.6 (2-7) | 57.1 (4-7) |
| Austin ParksC · Senior · #390 ranked | 2 · 2 | 20.5 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 46.2 (6-13) | 0.0 (0-2) | 20.0 (1-5) |
| Chris RiddleF · Sophomore · #1814 ranked | 3 · 2 | 18.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 25.0 (2-8) | 20.0 (1-5) | 60.0 (3-5) |
| Will James Jr.G · Sophomore · #1928 ranked | 3 · 1 | 17.3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 40.0 (4-10) | 50.0 (1-2) | 0.0 (0-3) |
| Rich BarronF · Junior · #3507 ranked | 3 · 0 | 15.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 30.8 (4-13) | 20.0 (1-5) | 25.0 (2-8) |
| Jaylohn AllenG · Freshman · #3508 ranked | 3 · 0 | 10.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 40.0 (2-5) | 0.0 (0-3) | 50.0 (1-2) |
| Rashaun PorterF · Freshman · #3265 ranked | 3 · 0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 33.3 (1-3) | — (0-0) | 70.0 (7-10) |
| Manny JohnsonG · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 (1-1) | 100.0 (1-1) | — (0-0) |
| Toby NwokoloF · Sophomore · #2482 ranked | 1 · 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 (0-1) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
| Marco MattucciG · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
Projected rotation
The preseason model's minutes projection for each player with a track record (college stats or a recruiting rank), most minutes first. Players without one aren't projected here; This season above lists everyone who has played.
| Player | How he got here | Proj. min | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin ParksC · Senior |  Returning | 26 | 10.7 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.8 ast |
| Jaylan OuwingaF · Junior | Returning | 19 | 6.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.6 ast |
| Angel Montas Jr.G · Senior |  Transfer from UMass Lowell | 18 | 15.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.7 ast |
| Mynor StrongG · Junior | Returning | 18 | 5.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast |
| Sean JonesG · Senior |  Transfer from Marquette | 14 | 6.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast |
| Will James Jr.G · Sophomore | Returning | 12 | 3.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast |
| Jaylohn AllenG · Freshman | Freshman · #327 recruit | 8 | — |
| Rashaun PorterF · Freshman | Freshman · #310 recruit | 8 | — |
| Chris RiddleF · Sophomore | Returning | 6 | 4.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast |
| Toby NwokoloF · Sophomore | Returning | 5 | 1 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.2 ast |
Gone from last season: Sonny Wilson (16.9 ppg, to 
South Florida), Leroy Blyden Jr. (16.4 ppg, to 
Kansas), Sean Craig (11.6 ppg), Kyler Vanderjagt (8.5 ppg)
Roster
Everyone on this season's roster, with this season's numbers for anyone who has played. Names link to player pages, ranked players first.
| # | Player | How he got here | Pos | Class | Ht / Wt | Hometown | This season | Last season | Rank · Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Austin Parks | Returning | C | Senior | 6-10 · 250 | Saint Marys, OH | 6.5 pts · 6.0 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | 10.7 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.8 ast (34 G) | #390 · +1.05 |
| 1 | Sean Jones | Transfer from Marquette | G | Senior | 5-10 · 185 | Columbus, OH | 8.0 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.0 ast (3 G) | 6.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast (8 G) | #529 · +0.83 |
| 9 | Angel Montas Jr. | Transfer from UMass Lowell | G | Senior | 6-6 · 225 | Romana, Dominican Republic | 14.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.0 ast (3 G) | 15.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.7 ast (30 G) | #800 · +0.55 |
| 32 | Jaylan Ouwinga | Returning | F | Junior | 6-9 · 215 | Grand Rapids, MI | 12.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.0 ast (3 G) | 6.3 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.6 ast (34 G) | #1269 · +0.22 |
| 5 | Mynor Strong | Returning | G | Junior | 6-3 · 175 | Omaha, NE | 16.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.7 ast (3 G) | 5.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast (33 G) | #1419 · +0.14 |
| 10 | Chris Riddle | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-5 · 210 | Chicago, IL | 2.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.7 ast (3 G) | 4.3 pts · 2.0 reb · 2.0 ast (3 G) | #1814 · -0.04 |
| 11 | Will James Jr. | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-4 · 205 | Holly Springs, NC | 3.0 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.3 ast (3 G) | 3.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast (34 G) | #1928 · -0.09 |
| 0 | Toby Nwokolo | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-6 · 200 | Columbus, OH | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | 1.0 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.2 ast (6 G) | #2482 · -0.29 |
| 24 | Rashaun Porter | Freshman | F | Freshman | 6-7 · 217 | Chicago, IL | 3.0 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast (3 G) | — | #3265 · -0.60 |
| 23 | Rich Barron | New to Division I | F | Junior | 6-5 · 225 | Chicago, IL | 3.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast (3 G) | — | #3507 · -0.72 |
| 7 | Jaylohn Allen | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-1 · 180 | Ypsilanti, MI | 1.7 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.7 ast (3 G) | — | #3508 · -0.72 |
| 2 | Manny Johnson | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-3 · 175 | Toledo, OH | 3.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 3 | Marco Mattucci | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-4 · 190 | New Albany, OH | 0.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
Schedule
Projected scores and win chances come from the current ratings and update every morning.
| Nov 2 |  atArkansas State | L70-71Box score → |
| Nov 5 |  at#6Michigan State | L61-91Box score → |
| Nov 7 |  atMarshall | W81-76Box score → |
| Still to play · computer projections | ||
| Nov 10 |  vsWright State | Projected 78-79TOL: 46% to winToledo: 46% to win Compare |
| Nov 14 |  atDetroit Mercy | Projected 78-70TOL: 76% to winToledo: 76% to win Compare |
| Nov 19 |  vsRobert Morris | Projected 77-68TOL: 77% to winToledo: 77% to win Compare |
| Nov 28 |  atValparaiso | Projected 70-75TOL: 34% to winToledo: 34% to win Compare |
| Dec 2 |  atOhioConference | Projected 77-78TOL: 45% to winToledo: 45% to win Compare |
| Dec 5 |  vsKent StateConference | Projected 81-75TOL: 68% to winToledo: 68% to win Compare |
| Dec 9 |  vsEastern MichiganConference | Projected 76-67TOL: 77% to winToledo: 77% to win Compare |
| Dec 12 |  atWestern MichiganConference | Projected 73-74TOL: 48% to winToledo: 48% to win Compare |
| Dec 16 |  vsOakland | Projected 81-73TOL: 76% to winToledo: 76% to win Compare |
| Dec 30 |  at#13Michigan | Projected 67-90TOL: 2% to winToledo: 2% to win Compare |
| Jan 2 |  atCentral MichiganConference | Projected 79-72TOL: 73% to winToledo: 73% to win Compare |
| Jan 5 |  vsMiami (OH)Conference | Projected 76-79TOL: 39% to winToledo: 39% to win Compare |
| Jan 8 |  vsBuffaloConference | Projected 80-71TOL: 78% to winToledo: 78% to win Compare |
| Jan 12 |  atMassachusettsConference | Projected 74-75TOL: 48% to winToledo: 48% to win Compare |
| Jan 15 |  vsAkronConference | Projected 75-80TOL: 33% to winToledo: 33% to win Compare |
| Jan 19 |  atBall StateConference | Projected 71-69TOL: 56% to winToledo: 56% to win Compare |
| Jan 23 | atBuffaloConference | Projected 77-74TOL: 59% to winToledo: 59% to win Compare |
| Jan 26 | vsCentral MichiganConference | Projected 82-69TOL: 88% to winToledo: 88% to win Compare |
| Jan 30 |  atBowling GreenConference | Projected 73-77TOL: 39% to winToledo: 39% to win Compare |
| Feb 2 | atEastern MichiganConference | Projected 73-71TOL: 57% to winToledo: 57% to win Compare |
| Feb 9 | vsBall StateConference | Projected 74-66TOL: 76% to winToledo: 76% to win Compare |
| Feb 13 | vsWestern MichiganConference | Projected 76-70TOL: 70% to winToledo: 70% to win Compare |
| Feb 16 | atMiami (OH)Conference | Projected 73-83TOL: 20% to winToledo: 20% to win Compare |
| Feb 20 | vsBowling GreenConference | Projected 77-73TOL: 61% to winToledo: 61% to win Compare |
| Feb 23 | atAkronConference | Projected 72-83TOL: 16% to winToledo: 16% to win Compare |
| Feb 27 | atKent StateConference | Projected 78-79TOL: 46% to winToledo: 46% to win Compare |
| Mar 2 | vsMassachusettsConference | Projected 77-71TOL: 69% to winToledo: 69% to win Compare |
| Mar 5 | vsOhioConference | Projected 80-75TOL: 67% to winToledo: 67% to win Compare |
MAC standings
| # | Team | Conf | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akron | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| 2 | Miami (OH) | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | Bowling Green | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Ohio | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 5 | Central Michigan | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 6 | Kent State | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Massachusetts | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Western Michigan | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Eastern Michigan | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 10 | Toledo | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| 11 | Ball State | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 12 | Buffalo | 0-0 | 0-2 |