College Basketball · UAC · 2026-27
Tarleton State Texans
1-1 · Coach Eric Haut
Power Rankings
#158–
Who is best right now.
-0.7points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I team
Last week: -0.0 (#158)
Preseason: #158
Full Power Rankings → Compare to another teamRating breakdown
Adjusted for every opponent and home court. Power = offense minus defense.
Projected record
21-11
- Conference record
- 10-6
- Conference title
- 28%
- Outright title
- 16%
- Luck
- -0.3
Actual results so far plus the rest of the seasonplayed out 10,000 times with the win chance for each game (non-Division I opponents count as 97% wins). The title is the regular-season crown; conference tournaments aren't included. Later rounds of holiday tournaments are added once the opponent is known.
Why #158 in the preseason
What the computer saw going in
- →Last season: #216 in the country (-4.8), 14-18.
- →16% of last season's minutes are back.
- →7 transfers in, led by Caleb Blackwell (UTEP, 10.6 ppg), TJ Cope (New Orleans, 8.2 ppg), JaVar Daniel (West Georgia, 7.4 ppg). Transfers moving up a level are counted cautiously.
- →1 ranked freshman: Caeden Hutcherson (#310).
- →Lost Jordan Mizell (5.2 ppg, now at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi), Freddy Hicks (8.9 ppg), Dior Johnson (24 ppg, now at UCF).
The preseason rating counts for about five games, then real results take over.
Teams like Tarleton State
The closest matches across all 365 Division I teams, based on the current ratings.
This season
Everyone who has played, most minutes first: per-game numbers from the box scores, updated after every game.
| Player | G · GS | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Kelly IVG · Sophomore · #1363 ranked | 2 · 2 | 34.5 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 47.6 (10-21) | 36.4 (4-11) | 61.5 (8-13) |
| TJ CopeG · Senior · #1102 ranked | 2 · 2 | 33.0 | 16.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 61.1 (11-18) | 0.0 (0-4) | 55.0 (11-20) |
| Adrian ShackletonG · Junior · #2728 ranked | 1 · 0 | 32.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 (0-4) | 0.0 (0-1) | 50.0 (2-4) |
| Franck EmmouG · Senior · #2238 ranked | 2 · 2 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 47.1 (8-17) | 66.7 (4-6) | 75.0 (6-8) |
| Kade DouglasG · Senior · #3208 ranked | 2 · 2 | 22.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 50.0 (4-8) | 57.1 (4-7) | — (0-0) |
| Jac ManiF · Senior · #1878 ranked | 2 · 2 | 20.5 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 70.0 (7-10) | 50.0 (2-4) | 100.0 (6-6) |
| Trey HarrisG · Senior | 2 · 0 | 18.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 50.0 (5-10) | 0.0 (0-2) | 100.0 (1-1) |
| Brett FreemanG · Sophomore | 2 · 0 | 17.5 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 40.0 (8-20) | 14.3 (1-7) | — (0-0) |
| Ethan CarterF · Sophomore | 2 · 0 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 (5-5) | — (0-0) | 83.3 (5-6) |
| Josh HayesF · Senior · #1575 ranked | 1 · 0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 75.0 (3-4) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
| Caeden HutchersonG · Freshman · #3686 ranked | 1 · 0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Matyas VrabelF · Senior · #2653 ranked | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
Projected rotation
The preseason model's minutes projection for each player with a track record (college stats or a recruiting rank), most minutes first. Players without one aren't projected here; This season above lists everyone who has played.
| Player | How he got here | Proj. min | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac HarrellF · Senior |  Transfer from Elon | 21 | 7.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.5 ast |
| Caleb BlackwellG · Senior |  Transfer from UTEP | 20 | 10.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.9 ast |
| TJ CopeG · Senior |  Transfer from New Orleans | 20 | 8.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast |
| Franck EmmouG · Senior |  Transfer from Texas State | 19 | 7.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast |
| JaVar DanielF · Senior |  Transfer from West Georgia | 18 | 7.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.7 ast |
| Josh HayesF · Senior |  Transfer from Utah | 18 | 2.8 pts · 2 reb · 0.3 ast |
| Leroy Kelly IVG · Sophomore |  Returning | 16 | 5.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast |
| Jac ManiF · Senior |  Transfer from Fresno State | 16 | 6 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.4 ast |
| Kade DouglasG · Senior | Returning | 16 | 5.3 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.6 ast |
| Caeden HutchersonG · Freshman | Freshman · #310 recruit | 8 | — |
| Matyas VrabelF · Senior | Returning | 7 | 2.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast |
| Joseph MartinezG · Senior | Returning | 5 | 0.3 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast |
Gone from last season: Jordan Mizell (5.2 ppg, to 
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi), Freddy Hicks (8.9 ppg), Dior Johnson (24 ppg, to 
UCF), Kaia Isaac (5.7 ppg, to 
Portland), Cam McDowell (13.9 ppg), DJ Dormu (5.4 ppg, to 
Southern)
Roster
Everyone on this season's roster, with this season's numbers for anyone who has played. Names link to player pages, ranked players first.
| # | Player | How he got here | Pos | Class | Ht / Wt | Hometown | This season | Last season | Rank · Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | TJ Cope | Transfer from New Orleans | G | Senior | 6-7 · 200 | Boston, MA | 16.5 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.5 ast (2 G) | 8.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.8 ast (32 G) | #1102 · +0.31 |
| 5 | JaVar Daniel | Transfer from West Georgia | F | Senior | 6-10 · 220 | Memphis, TN | Hasn't played | 7.4 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.7 ast (31 G) | #1159 · +0.28 |
| 4 | Leroy Kelly IV | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-2 · 195 | Dallas, TX | 16.0 pts · 8.0 reb · 3.5 ast (2 G) | 5.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.3 ast (22 G) | #1363 · +0.17 |
| 44 | Josh Hayes | Transfer from Utah | F | Senior | 6-9 · 210 | Gainesville, FL | 6.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 1.0 ast (1 G) | 2.8 pts · 2.0 reb · 0.3 ast (32 G) | #1575 · +0.06 |
| 12 | Isaac Harrell | Transfer from Elon | F | Senior | 6-8 · 205 | Jonesboro, AR | Hasn't played | 7.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.5 ast (32 G) | #1649 · +0.03 |
| 11 | Jac Mani | Transfer from Fresno State | F | Senior | 6-9 · 235 | Los Angeles, CA | 11.0 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | 6.0 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.4 ast (26 G) | #1878 · -0.07 |
| 1 | Caleb Blackwell | Transfer from UTEP | G | Senior | 6-1 · 185 | Buford, GA | Hasn't played | 10.6 pts · 2.6 reb · 2.9 ast (28 G) | #2119 · -0.16 |
| 2 | Franck Emmou | Transfer from Texas State | G | Senior | 6-5 · 190 | Arlington, TX | 13.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 5.5 ast (2 G) | 7.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast (31 G) | #2238 · -0.21 |
| 15 | Matyas Vrabel | Returning | F | Senior | 6-10 · 235 | Ostrava, Czech Republic | 0.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | 2.2 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.1 ast (14 G) | #2653 · -0.36 |
| 0 | Adrian Shackleton | New to Division I | G | Junior | 6-4 · 190 | Palm Beach, FL | 2.0 pts · 8.0 reb · 5.0 ast (1 G) | — | #2728 · -0.39 |
| 14 | Joseph Martinez | Returning | G | Senior | 6-3 · 185 | El Paso, TX | Hasn't played | 0.3 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (7 G) | #3122 · -0.54 |
| 13 | Kade Douglas | Returning | G | Senior | 6-0 · 180 | Lancaster, TX | 6.0 pts · 2.0 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 5.3 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.6 ast (32 G) | #3208 · -0.58 |
| 6 | Caeden Hutcherson | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-5 · 190 | San Francisco, CA | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | #3686 · -0.79 |
| 8 | Brett Freeman |  Transfer from Virginia Tech | G | Sophomore | 6-5 · 185 | Bronx, NY | 8.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 35 | Ethan Carter | New to Division I | F | Sophomore | 6-8 · 200 | Fairburn, GA | 7.5 pts · 3.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 7 | Trey Harris | New to Division I | G | Senior | 6-7 · 210 | Houston, TX | 5.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
Schedule
Projected scores and win chances come from the current ratings and update every morning.
| Nov 2 | vsCameron(non-D1) | W86-60Box score → |
| Nov 6 |  atSan Diego | L90-96Box score → |
| Still to play · computer projections | ||
| Nov 10 | vsUT Dallas(non-D1) | Upcoming |
| Nov 13 |  vsAlcorn State | Projected 86-70TAR: 91% to winTarleton State: 91% to win Compare |
| Nov 16 |  atDrake | Projected 75-79TAR: 36% to winTarleton State: 36% to win Compare |
| Nov 19 |  atUSC | Projected 69-88TAR: 5% to winTarleton State: 5% to win Compare |
| Nov 24 |  atWeber State | Projected 84-77TAR: 72% to winTarleton State: 72% to win Compare |
| Nov 29 |  atTexas Southern | Projected 82-74TAR: 78% to winTarleton State: 78% to win Compare |
| Dec 2 | vsRandall(non-D1) | Upcoming |
| Dec 5 |  atPittsburgh | Projected 68-83TAR: 11% to winTarleton State: 11% to win Compare |
| Dec 8 | vsUNT Dallas(non-D1) | Upcoming |
| Dec 12 |  vsMissouri State | Projected 81-69TAR: 84% to winTarleton State: 84% to win Compare |
| Dec 19 |  atFlorida Gulf Coast | Projected 78-77TAR: 53% to winTarleton State: 53% to win Compare |
| Dec 21 |  atStetson | Projected 79-74TAR: 68% to winTarleton State: 68% to win Compare |
| Dec 28 |  vsWest Florida | Projected 84-68TAR: 92% to winTarleton State: 92% to win Compare |
| Jan 2 |  vsNorth Florida | Projected 87-72TAR: 90% to winTarleton State: 90% to win Compare |
| Jan 6 |  vsCentral ArkansasConference | Projected 77-76TAR: 55% to winTarleton State: 55% to win Compare |
| Jan 9 |  vsLittle RockConference | Projected 81-73TAR: 75% to winTarleton State: 75% to win Compare |
| Jan 13 |  atEastern KentuckyConference | Projected 80-75TAR: 68% to winTarleton State: 68% to win Compare |
| Jan 16 |  atAustin PeayConference | Projected 74-78TAR: 36% to winTarleton State: 36% to win Compare |
| Jan 23 | atLittle RockConference | Projected 78-77TAR: 55% to winTarleton State: 55% to win Compare |
| Jan 27 | vsWest GeorgiaConference | Projected 80-69TAR: 84% to winTarleton State: 84% to win Compare |
| Jan 30 | vsAustin PeayConference | Projected 77-75TAR: 58% to winTarleton State: 58% to win Compare |
| Feb 6 |  atAbilene ChristianConference | Projected 79-74TAR: 68% to winTarleton State: 68% to win Compare |
| Feb 10 |  vsNorth AlabamaConference | Projected 81-69TAR: 85% to winTarleton State: 85% to win Compare |
| Feb 13 |  atUT ArlingtonConference | Projected 75-76TAR: 47% to winTarleton State: 47% to win Compare |
| Feb 17 | atCentral ArkansasConference | Projected 74-79TAR: 33% to winTarleton State: 33% to win Compare |
| Feb 20 | vsEastern KentuckyConference | Projected 83-71TAR: 85% to winTarleton State: 85% to win Compare |
| Feb 24 | vsAbilene ChristianConference | Projected 82-71TAR: 85% to winTarleton State: 85% to win Compare |
| Feb 27 | vsUT ArlingtonConference | Projected 78-73TAR: 68% to winTarleton State: 68% to win Compare |
| Mar 3 | atWest GeorgiaConference | Projected 77-72TAR: 67% to winTarleton State: 67% to win Compare |
| Mar 6 | atNorth AlabamaConference | Projected 78-72TAR: 69% to winTarleton State: 69% to win Compare |
UAC standings
| # | Team | Conf | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UT Arlington | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 2 | Eastern Kentucky | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | North Alabama | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 4 | Central Arkansas | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 5 | Austin Peay | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 6 | Tarleton State | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Abilene Christian | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Little Rock | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 9 | West Georgia | 0-0 | 0-2 |