College Basketball · Mountain West · 2026-27
Air Force Falcons
1-1 · Coach Joe Scott (new)
Power Rankings
#350▼2
Who is best right now.
-20.4points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I team
Last week: -18.5 (#348)
Preseason: #348
Full Power Rankings → Compare to another teamRating breakdown
Adjusted for every opponent and home court. Power = offense minus defense.
Projected record
6-26
- Conference record
- 1-17
- Conference title
- 0%
- Outright title
- 0%
- Luck
- -0.0
Actual results so far plus the rest of the seasonplayed out 10,000 times with the win chance for each game (non-Division I opponents count as 97% wins). The title is the regular-season crown; conference tournaments aren't included. Later rounds of holiday tournaments are added once the opponent is known.
Why #348 in the preseason
What the computer saw going in
- →Last season: #346 in the country (-21.4), 3-29.
- →98% of last season's minutes are back.
- →New head coach: Joe Scott, replacing Joe Crispin. A coaching change usually costs a little in year one.
The preseason rating counts for about five games, then real results take over.
Teams like Air Force
The closest matches across all 365 Division I teams, based on the current ratings.
This season
Everyone who has played, most minutes first: per-game numbers from the box scores, updated after every game.
| Player | G · GS | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam SandersG · Sophomore · #2209 ranked | 2 · 2 | 28.5 | 19.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 44.8 (13-29) | 28.6 (2-7) | 55.6 (10-18) |
| Grant BestG · Freshman · #3680 ranked | 2 · 2 | 28.5 | 17.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 43.3 (13-30) | 41.7 (5-12) | 100.0 (3-3) |
| Caleb WalkerF · Senior · #1784 ranked | 1 · 1 | 28.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 33.3 (3-9) | — (0-0) | 50.0 (5-10) |
| Lucas HobinF · Sophomore · #3668 ranked | 2 · 2 | 21.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 31.6 (6-19) | 30.0 (3-10) | 70.0 (7-10) |
| A.J. PattersonG · Junior · #3542 ranked | 2 · 0 | 18.5 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 45.5 (5-11) | 50.0 (2-4) | 77.8 (7-9) |
| Ethan GreenbergG · Sophomore · #3907 ranked | 2 · 0 | 16.5 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 41.7 (5-12) | 22.2 (2-9) | 50.0 (1-2) |
| Josh GateteF · Senior · #3938 ranked | 2 · 1 | 14.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 20.0 (1-5) | 25.0 (1-4) | — (0-0) |
| Eli RobinsonF · Junior · #2944 ranked | 2 · 0 | 13.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 37.5 (3-8) | — (0-0) | 100.0 (2-2) |
| Justin HindsG · Sophomore · #3824 ranked | 2 · 0 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 50.0 (3-6) | 50.0 (1-2) | — (0-0) |
| Brendan MartinF · Sophomore · #3647 ranked | 2 · 2 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 14.3 (1-7) | 0.0 (0-4) | 75.0 (3-4) |
| Wesley CelichowskiC · Senior · #3520 ranked | 2 · 0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 50.0 (1-2) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Elliott TaiteG · Junior · #3597 ranked | 1 · 0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 (0-2) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Kolby GillesF · Senior · #3994 ranked | 2 · 0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 (0-3) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
| Diggy GriffinG · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 (2-2) | — (0-0) | 50.0 (1-2) |
| Keaton FrischF · Sophomore · #3749 ranked | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 (2-2) | — (0-0) | 0.0 (0-1) |
| Mayson ThomasF · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 (1-2) | 0.0 (0-1) | 100.0 (1-1) |
| Tre KeeneG · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 (1-2) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
| Mark CaslaruC · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 (1-2) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
| Riley DeringF · Sophomore · #2739 ranked | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 (0-1) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
| Caleb FayF · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
Projected rotation
The preseason model's minutes projection for each player with a track record (college stats or a recruiting rank), most minutes first. Players without one aren't projected here; This season above lists everyone who has played.
| Player | How he got here | Proj. min | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kam SandersG · Sophomore |  Returning | 28 | 12.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast |
| Lucas HobinF · Sophomore | Returning | 26 | 11.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast |
| Eli RobinsonF · Junior | Returning | 25 | 7.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast |
| Ethan GreenbergG · Sophomore | Returning | 24 | 6.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast |
| Wesley CelichowskiC · Senior | Returning | 20 | 4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast |
| Caleb WalkerF · Senior | Returning | 18 | 10.4 pts · 5 reb · 0.8 ast |
| A.J. PattersonG · Junior | Returning | 14 | 2.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast |
| Kolby GillesF · Senior | Returning | 13 | 3.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast |
| Justin HindsG · Sophomore | Returning | 12 | 1.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast |
| Riley DeringF · Sophomore | Returning | 10 | 5.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0 ast |
| Brendan MartinF · Sophomore | Returning | 6 | 1.8 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.2 ast |
| Josh GateteF · Senior | Returning | 6 | 0.3 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.3 ast |
| Elliott TaiteG · Junior | Returning | 5 | 1.5 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.2 ast |
Roster
Everyone on this season's roster, with this season's numbers for anyone who has played. Names link to player pages, ranked players first.
| # | Player | How he got here | Pos | Class | Ht / Wt | Hometown | This season | Last season | Rank · Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Caleb Walker | Returning | F | Senior | 6-9 · 255 | Jefferson City, MO | 11.0 pts · 8.0 reb · 1.0 ast (1 G) | 10.4 pts · 5.0 reb · 0.8 ast (24 G) | #1784 · -0.03 |
| 3 | Kam Sanders | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-3 · 195 | Albany, GA | 19.0 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 12.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.8 ast (32 G) | #2209 · -0.19 |
| 5 | Riley Dering | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-9 · 230 | Dallas, TX | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | 5.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.0 ast (14 G) | #2739 · -0.39 |
| 30 | Eli Robinson | Returning | F | Junior | 6-6 · 215 | Monument, CO | 4.0 pts · 4.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | 7.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast (31 G) | #2944 · -0.47 |
| 51 | Wesley Celichowski | Returning | C | Senior | 7-0 · 265 | Georgetown, IN | 1.0 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | 4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.3 ast (32 G) | #3520 · -0.73 |
| 2 | A.J. Patterson | Returning | G | Junior | 6-3 · 200 | Atlanta, GA | 9.5 pts · 2.0 reb · 2.0 ast (2 G) | 2.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.8 ast (29 G) | #3542 · -0.73 |
| 7 | Elliott Taite | Returning | G | Junior | 6-4 · 200 | Frisco, TX | 0.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | 1.5 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.2 ast (12 G) | #3597 · -0.76 |
| 11 | Brendan Martin | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-6 · 210 | Huntsville, AL | 2.5 pts · 2.0 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 1.8 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.2 ast (12 G) | #3647 · -0.78 |
| 24 | Lucas Hobin | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-8 · 208 | Katy, TX | 11.0 pts · 4.0 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | 11.4 pts · 2.0 reb · 0.6 ast (32 G) | #3668 · -0.79 |
| 33 | Grant Best | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-4 · 195 | Saint John, IN | 17.0 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.0 ast (2 G) | — | #3680 · -0.79 |
| 8 | Keaton Frisch | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-6 · 200 | Waunakee, WI | 4.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | #3749 · -0.82 |
| 15 | Justin Hinds | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-5 · 200 | Wilmington, DE | 3.5 pts · 3.0 reb · 1.0 ast (2 G) | 1.4 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.5 ast (29 G) | #3824 · -0.86 |
| 21 | Ethan Greenberg | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-4 · 195 | Centerville, OH | 6.5 pts · 2.0 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | 6.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.0 ast (32 G) | #3907 · -0.89 |
| 0 | Josh Gatete | Returning | F | Senior | 6-9 · 205 | Granger, IN | 1.5 pts · 2.0 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 0.3 pts · 0.4 reb · 0.3 ast (15 G) | #3938 · -0.91 |
| 32 | Kolby Gilles | Returning | F | Senior | 6-5 · 250 | Chicago, IL | 0.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | 3.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.6 ast (32 G) | #3994 · -0.97 |
| 13 | Caleb Fay | Freshman | F | Freshman | 6-6 · 210 | Denver, CO | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 2.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 17 | Diggy Griffin | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-5 · 195 | Portland, OR | 5.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 4 | Mark Caslaru | Freshman | C | Freshman | 6-10 · 240 | Fort Mill, SC | 2.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 1 | Mayson Thomas | Freshman | F | Freshman | 6-5 · 215 | San Antonio, TX | 3.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 6 | Tre Keene | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-1 · 170 | San Antonio, TX | 2.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
Schedule
Projected scores and win chances come from the current ratings and update every morning.
| Nov 2 |  atWright State | L71-102Box score → |
| Nov 5 | vsCalumet College(non-D1) | W107-58Box score → |
| Still to play · computer projections | ||
| Nov 8 |  vsIdaho State | Projected 76-73AFA: 60% to winAir Force: 60% to win Compare |
| Nov 11 |  vsLoyola Chicago | Projected 66-79AFA: 13% to winAir Force: 13% to win Compare |
| Nov 14 |  atPacific | Projected 60-82AFA: 3% to winAir Force: 3% to win Compare |
| Nov 21 |  atUTSA | Projected 72-80AFA: 23% to winAir Force: 23% to win Compare |
| Nov 24 |  vs (N)Army | Projected 71-76AFA: 35% to winAir Force: 35% to win Compare |
| Nov 28 |  vsBrown | Projected 70-73AFA: 40% to winAir Force: 40% to win Compare |
| Dec 1 |  vsDenver | Projected 71-79AFA: 22% to winAir Force: 22% to win Compare |
| Dec 6 |  vsNavy | Projected 70-73AFA: 42% to winAir Force: 42% to win Compare |
| Dec 10 |  atAustin Peay | Projected 66-84AFA: 6% to winAir Force: 6% to win Compare |
| Dec 18 |  vsAlabama State | Projected 77-76AFA: 51% to winAir Force: 51% to win Compare |
| Dec 21 |  vsEastern Kentucky | Projected 75-77AFA: 43% to winAir Force: 43% to win Compare |
| Dec 29 |  atUtah | Projected 63-83AFA: 4% to winAir Force: 4% to win Compare |
| Jan 5 |  vsSan José StateConference | Projected 73-82AFA: 22% to winAir Force: 22% to win Compare |
| Jan 9 |  vsUTEPConference | Projected 70-77AFA: 27% to winAir Force: 27% to win Compare |
| Jan 12 |  atHawai'iConference | Projected 65-86AFA: 4% to winAir Force: 4% to win Compare |
| Jan 16 |  vsNew MexicoConference | Projected 65-90AFA: 2% to winAir Force: 2% to win Compare |
| Jan 19 |  atNevadaConference | Projected 59-90AFA: 1% to winAir Force: 1% to win Compare |
| Jan 22 |  vsWyomingConference | Projected 67-85AFA: 7% to winAir Force: 7% to win Compare |
| Jan 27 |  atGrand CanyonConference | Projected 64-95AFA: 1% to winAir Force: 1% to win Compare |
| Jan 30 | atNew MexicoConference | Projected 62-93AFA: 1% to winAir Force: 1% to win Compare |
| Feb 2 |  vsUNLVConference | Projected 70-88AFA: 7% to winAir Force: 7% to win Compare |
| Feb 6 |  atUC DavisConference | Projected 69-84AFA: 9% to winAir Force: 9% to win Compare |
| Feb 10 | vsHawai'iConference | Projected 68-83AFA: 10% to winAir Force: 10% to win Compare |
| Feb 13 | atSan José StateConference | Projected 70-85AFA: 9% to winAir Force: 9% to win Compare |
| Feb 16 | vsGrand CanyonConference | Projected 67-91AFA: 2% to winAir Force: 2% to win Compare |
| Feb 20 | vsUC DavisConference | Projected 72-81AFA: 22% to winAir Force: 22% to win Compare |
| Feb 24 | atUNLVConference | Projected 67-91AFA: 2% to winAir Force: 2% to win Compare |
| Feb 27 | atWyomingConference | Projected 64-88AFA: 2% to winAir Force: 2% to win Compare |
| Mar 2 | vsNevadaConference | Projected 62-87AFA: 2% to winAir Force: 2% to win Compare |
| Mar 6 | atUTEPConference | Projected 67-81AFA: 12% to winAir Force: 12% to win Compare |
Mountain West standings
| # | Team | Conf | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nevada | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | Grand Canyon | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 4 | Wyoming | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 5 | UNLV | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 6 | Hawai'i | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 7 | San José State | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 8 | UC Davis | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Air Force | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 10 | UTEP | 0-0 | 0-1 |