College Basketball · Big West · 2026-27
Cal Poly Mustangs
1-1 · Coach Mike DeGeorge
Power Rankings
#151▲27
Who is best right now.
-0.1points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I team
Last week: -1.9 (#178)
Preseason: #179
Full Power Rankings → Compare to another teamRating breakdown
Adjusted for every opponent and home court. Power = offense minus defense.
Projected record
16-15
- Conference record
- 12-10
- Conference title
- 2%
- Outright title
- 1%
- Luck
- -0.0
Actual results so far plus the rest of the seasonplayed out 10,000 times with the win chance for each game (non-Division I opponents count as 97% wins). The title is the regular-season crown; conference tournaments aren't included. Later rounds of holiday tournaments are added once the opponent is known.
Why #179 in the preseason
What the computer saw going in
- →Last season: #213 in the country (-4.7), 14-19.
- →82% of last season's minutes are back.
- →Lost Peter Bandelj (13 ppg, now at Nevada), Luka Tarlac (3 ppg).
The preseason rating counts for about five games, then real results take over.
Teams like Cal Poly
The closest matches across all 365 Division I teams, based on the current ratings.
This season
Everyone who has played, most minutes first: per-game numbers from the box scores, updated after every game.
| Player | G · GS | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad MousaG · Junior · #360 ranked | 2 · 2 | 27.5 | 24.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 60.0 (15-25) | 68.8 (11-16) | 70.0 (7-10) |
| Cayden WardG · Junior · #1074 ranked | 2 · 2 | 26.5 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 50.0 (9-18) | 22.2 (2-9) | 57.1 (4-7) |
| Guzman VasilicG · Junior · #2327 ranked | 2 · 2 | 26.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 28.6 (4-14) | 25.0 (3-12) | 100.0 (2-2) |
| Jess Esso EssisG · Sophomore · #1846 ranked | 2 · 2 | 22.0 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 45.0 (9-20) | 33.3 (3-9) | — (0-0) |
| Jason ScottG · Sophomore · #2674 ranked | 1 · 0 | 17.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 75.0 (6-8) | 83.3 (5-6) | — (0-0) |
| Austin GoodeF · Sophomore · #2123 ranked | 2 · 2 | 16.5 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 45.5 (5-11) | 50.0 (4-8) | 50.0 (2-4) |
| Troy PlumtreeF · Sophomore · #2114 ranked | 2 · 0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 75.0 (3-4) | — (0-0) | 28.6 (2-7) |
| Ali AssranF · Sophomore · #2227 ranked | 2 · 0 | 14.5 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 28.6 (2-7) | 0.0 (0-3) | 50.0 (4-8) |
| Jackson MosleyG · Senior · #2203 ranked | 2 · 0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 (0-6) | 0.0 (0-4) | — (0-0) |
| Anthony MooreG · Sophomore | 1 · 0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 (0-5) | 0.0 (0-3) | 25.0 (1-4) |
| Braden FreemanF · Sophomore | 2 · 0 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 33.3 (2-6) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
| Aaron Price Jr.F · Senior · #2878 ranked | 2 · 0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 50.0 (1-2) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Jake DavisG · Senior · #2410 ranked | 2 · 0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 (0-1) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
Projected rotation
The preseason model's minutes projection for each player with a track record (college stats or a recruiting rank), most minutes first. Players without one aren't projected here; This season above lists everyone who has played.
| Player | How he got here | Proj. min | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad MousaG · Junior |  Returning | 31 | 20.4 pts · 6.2 reb · 2 ast |
| Cayden WardG · Junior | Returning | 28 | 14.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.6 ast |
| Guzman VasilicG · Junior | Returning | 21 | 7.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast |
| Jake DavisG · Senior | Returning | 20 | 5.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast |
| Austin GoodeF · Sophomore | Returning | 17 | 5.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast |
| Ali AssranF · Sophomore | Returning | 14 | 3.5 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.7 ast |
| Troy PlumtreeF · Sophomore | Returning | 13 | 4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast |
| Kieran ElliottG · Senior | Returning | 12 | 5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast |
| Jackson MosleyPG · Senior | Returning | 10 | 5.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast |
| Aaron Price Jr.PF · Senior | Returning | 8 | 2 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast |
| Jess Esso EssisG · Sophomore | Returning | 8 | 8.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast |
| Jason ScottG · Sophomore | Returning | 6 | 2.4 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.5 ast |
Gone from last season: Peter Bandelj (13 ppg, to 
Nevada), Luka Tarlac (3 ppg)
Roster
Everyone on this season's roster, with this season's numbers for anyone who has played. Names link to player pages, ranked players first.
| # | Player | How he got here | Pos | Class | Ht / Wt | Hometown | This season | Last season | Rank · Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hamad Mousa | Returning | G | Junior | 6-8 · 200 | Doha, Qatar | 24.0 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 20.4 pts · 6.2 reb · 2.0 ast (32 G) | #360 · +1.09 |
| 14 | Cayden Ward | Returning | G | Junior | 6-6 · 210 | Stockton, CA | 12.0 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.5 ast (2 G) | 14.5 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.6 ast (33 G) | #1074 · +0.33 |
| 1 | Jess Esso Essis | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-10 · 210 | Le Mans, France | 10.5 pts · 5.0 reb · 2.5 ast (2 G) | 8.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.0 ast (7 G) | #1846 · -0.06 |
| 4 | Kieran Elliott | Returning | G | Senior | 6-6 · 215 | Lubbock, TX | Hasn't played | 5.1 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast (18 G) | #1895 · -0.07 |
| 13 | Troy Plumtree | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-6 · 215 | Wellington, New Zealand | 4.0 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.0 ast (2 G) | 4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.7 ast (30 G) | #2114 · -0.16 |
| 11 | Austin Goode | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-7 · 200 | Brampton, ON | 8.0 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 5.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.9 ast (32 G) | #2123 · -0.16 |
| 8 | Jackson Mosley | Returning | PG | Senior | 5-10 · 170 | La Canada, CA | 0.0 pts · 0.5 reb · 2.5 ast (2 G) | 5.6 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.8 ast (17 G) | #2203 · -0.19 |
| 7 | Ali Assran | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-9 · 210 | Cairo, Egypt | 4.0 pts · 7.5 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | 3.5 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.7 ast (31 G) | #2227 · -0.20 |
| 5 | Guzman Vasilic | Returning | G | Junior | 6-4 · 200 | Montevideo, Uruguay | 6.5 pts · 4.0 reb · 2.0 ast (2 G) | 7.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast (30 G) | #2327 · -0.24 |
| 3 | Jake Davis | Returning | G | Senior | 6-4 · 175 | Walnut Creek, CA | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | 5.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast (32 G) | #2410 · -0.27 |
| 00 | Jason Scott | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-4 · 190 | Houston, TX | 17.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 1.0 ast (1 G) | 2.4 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.5 ast (8 G) | #2674 · -0.36 |
| 15 | Aaron Price Jr. | Returning | PF | Senior | 6-8 · 225 | Las Vegas, NV | 1.0 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | 2.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.3 ast (21 G) | #2878 · -0.44 |
| 12 | Canon Wyatt | Freshman | G | Freshman | 5-11 · 160 | Dallas, TX | Hasn't played | — | Not ranked yet |
| 24 | Anthony Moore |  Transfer from Weber State | G | Sophomore | 6-5 · 190 | Stockton, CA | 1.0 pts · 4.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 2 | Braden Freeman | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-6 · 200 | Moline, IL | 2.0 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
Schedule
Projected scores and win chances come from the current ratings and update every morning.
| Nov 2 | vsCSU San Marcos(non-D1) | W78-62Box score → |
| Nov 5 |  at#10Arizona | L84-104Box score → |
| Still to play · computer projections | ||
| Nov 11 |  atGrand Canyon | Projected 76-93CP: 7% to winCal Poly: 7% to win Compare |
| Nov 13 |  atIdaho | Projected 81-80CP: 52% to winCal Poly: 52% to win Compare |
| Nov 15 |  atMontana State | Projected 78-85CP: 28% to winCal Poly: 28% to win Compare |
| Nov 21 |  vsNorthern Arizona | Projected 87-74CP: 87% to winCal Poly: 87% to win Compare |
| Dec 3 |  atCal State NorthridgeConference | Projected 83-86CP: 40% to winCal Poly: 40% to win Compare |
| Dec 5 |  atUC Santa BarbaraConference | Projected 76-86CP: 20% to winCal Poly: 20% to win Compare |
| Dec 12 |  vsMontana | Projected 86-77CP: 80% to winCal Poly: 80% to win Compare |
| Dec 15 |  atColorado | Projected 76-88CP: 14% to winCal Poly: 14% to win Compare |
| Dec 22 |  atUNLV | Projected 80-90CP: 20% to winCal Poly: 20% to win Compare |
| Dec 31 |  atUC RiversideConference | Projected 80-78CP: 57% to winCal Poly: 57% to win Compare |
| Jan 2 |  atCalifornia BaptistConference | Projected 81-77CP: 66% to winCal Poly: 66% to win Compare |
| Jan 7 |  vsLong Beach StateConference | Projected 84-76CP: 76% to winCal Poly: 76% to win Compare |
| Jan 9 |  vsCal State FullertonConference | Projected 90-82CP: 74% to winCal Poly: 74% to win Compare |
| Jan 14 |  atSacramento StateConference | Projected 81-86CP: 35% to winCal Poly: 35% to win Compare |
| Jan 16 |  atUtah ValleyConference | Projected 80-88CP: 24% to winCal Poly: 24% to win Compare |
| Jan 21 |  vsCal State BakersfieldConference | Projected 89-74CP: 91% to winCal Poly: 91% to win Compare |
| Jan 23 | vsCal State NorthridgeConference | Projected 86-82CP: 64% to winCal Poly: 64% to win Compare |
| Jan 28 |  vsUC IrvineConference | Projected 80-82CP: 45% to winCal Poly: 45% to win Compare |
| Jan 30 |  vsUC San DiegoConference | Projected 79-81CP: 42% to winCal Poly: 42% to win Compare |
| Feb 4 | atCal State FullertonConference | Projected 87-86CP: 52% to winCal Poly: 52% to win Compare |
| Feb 6 | atLong Beach StateConference | Projected 81-79CP: 55% to winCal Poly: 55% to win Compare |
| Feb 11 | vsCalifornia BaptistConference | Projected 85-73CP: 83% to winCal Poly: 83% to win Compare |
| Feb 13 | vsUC RiversideConference | Projected 83-74CP: 78% to winCal Poly: 78% to win Compare |
| Feb 18 | atCal State BakersfieldConference | Projected 86-78CP: 77% to winCal Poly: 77% to win Compare |
| Feb 20 | vsUC Santa BarbaraConference | Projected 79-83CP: 38% to winCal Poly: 38% to win Compare |
| Feb 25 | atUC San DiegoConference | Projected 76-85CP: 22% to winCal Poly: 22% to win Compare |
| Feb 27 | atUC IrvineConference | Projected 77-85CP: 24% to winCal Poly: 24% to win Compare |
| Mar 4 | vsUtah ValleyConference | Projected 84-85CP: 46% to winCal Poly: 46% to win Compare |
| Mar 6 | vsSacramento StateConference | Projected 85-82CP: 59% to winCal Poly: 59% to win Compare |
Big West standings
| # | Team | Conf | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UC Santa Barbara | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 2 | UC San Diego | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | UC Irvine | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 4 | Utah Valley | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 5 | UC Riverside | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 6 | Cal State Bakersfield | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| 7 | Sacramento State | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Cal Poly | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Cal State Fullerton | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 10 | Cal State Northridge | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 11 | Long Beach State | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| 12 | California Baptist | 0-0 | 0-2 |