College Basketball · MVC · 2026-27
Illinois State Redbirds
1-1 · Coach Ryan Pedon
Power Rankings
#98▲1
Who is best right now.
+9.6points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I team
Last week: +8.1 (#99)
Preseason: #99
Full Power Rankings → Compare to another teamRating breakdown
Adjusted for every opponent and home court. Power = offense minus defense.
Projected record
22-10
- Conference record
- 14-6
- Conference title
- 29%
- Outright title
- 17%
- Luck
- -0.3
Actual results so far plus the rest of the seasonplayed out 10,000 times with the win chance for each game (non-Division I opponents count as 97% wins). The title is the regular-season crown; conference tournaments aren't included. Later rounds of holiday tournaments are added once the opponent is known.
Why #99 in the preseason
What the computer saw going in
- →Last season: #91 in the country (+9.4), 23-13.
- →34% of last season's minutes are back.
- →5 transfers in, led by Malik Messina-Moore (Xavier, 10.9 ppg), Deng Garang (Le Moyne, 10.8 ppg), Demarion Burch (Bradley, 8.8 ppg). Transfers moving up a level are counted cautiously.
- →1 ranked freshman: Jordan Williams (#327).
- →Lost Boden Skunberg (9.6 ppg), Ty Pence (9.4 ppg, now at Akron), Landon Wolf (7.6 ppg).
The preseason rating counts for about five games, then real results take over.
Teams like Illinois State
The closest matches across all 365 Division I teams, based on the current ratings.
This season
Everyone who has played, most minutes first: per-game numbers from the box scores, updated after every game.
| Player | G · GS | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny KinzigerG · Senior · #1115 ranked | 2 · 2 | 32.5 | 23.0 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 68.2 (15-22) | 68.8 (11-16) | 83.3 (5-6) |
| Malik Messina-MooreG · Senior · #539 ranked | 2 · 1 | 26.5 | 17.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 50.0 (10-20) | 53.8 (7-13) | 58.3 (7-12) |
| Demarion BurchG · Senior · #2263 ranked | 2 · 2 | 24.5 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 55.6 (5-9) | 66.7 (2-3) | 50.0 (2-4) |
| Mason KlaboG · Sophomore · #989 ranked | 2 · 2 | 24.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 40.0 (4-10) | 44.4 (4-9) | 100.0 (6-6) |
| Noah ClevelandF · Sophomore · #3834 ranked | 2 · 2 | 19.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 57.1 (4-7) | — (0-0) | 0.0 (0-1) |
| Zaxton KingG · Junior · #1953 ranked | 2 · 0 | 16.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 33.3 (1-3) | 33.3 (1-3) | 0.0 (0-1) |
| Chase WalkerF · Senior · #226 ranked | 2 · 1 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 50.0 (4-8) | 50.0 (1-2) | 83.3 (10-12) |
| Deng GarangG · Junior · #1912 ranked | 2 · 0 | 15.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 62.5 (5-8) | 50.0 (3-6) | — (0-0) |
| Nick AllenF · Freshman | 2 · 0 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 72.7 (8-11) | — (0-0) | 57.1 (4-7) |
| Jordan WilliamsG · Freshman · #3776 ranked | 1 · 0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 (2-5) | 0.0 (0-1) | 0.0 (0-1) |
| Louie Semona IIIF · Senior · #1978 ranked | 2 · 0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 (0-3) | 0.0 (0-3) | — (0-0) |
| Leyton WolfF · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 (2-2) | — (0-0) | 0.0 (0-2) |
| Matthew SzafoniF · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 (1-2) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
| Ty BlakeG · Senior · #2386 ranked | 1 · 0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
Projected rotation
The preseason model's minutes projection for each player with a track record (college stats or a recruiting rank), most minutes first. Players without one aren't projected here; This season above lists everyone who has played.
| Player | How he got here | Proj. min | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny KinzigerG · Senior |  Returning | 29 | 11.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast |
| Malik Messina-MooreG · Senior |  Transfer from Xavier | 24 | 10.9 pts · 3 reb · 3.8 ast |
| Chase WalkerF · Senior | Returning | 22 | 13.7 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.1 ast |
| Zaxton KingG · Junior |  Transfer from Missouri State | 18 | 7.2 pts · 2 reb · 1.6 ast |
| Deng GarangG · Junior |  Transfer from Le Moyne | 17 | 10.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast |
| Demarion BurchG · Senior |  Transfer from Bradley | 17 | 8.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 1 ast |
| Mason KlaboG · Sophomore | Returning | 17 | 5.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.2 ast |
| Louie Semona IIIF · Senior |  Transfer from Western Kentucky | 12 | 2.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.7 ast |
| Jordan WilliamsG · Freshman | Freshman · #327 recruit | 8 | — |
| Ty BlakeG · Senior | Returning | 5 | 0.9 pts · 0.2 reb · 0 ast |
Gone from last season: Boden Skunberg (9.6 ppg), Ty Pence (9.4 ppg, to 
Akron), Landon Wolf (7.6 ppg), Ty'Reek Coleman (10 ppg, to 
Iowa), Landon Moore (3.5 ppg), Brandon Lieb (3.1 ppg)
Roster
Everyone on this season's roster, with this season's numbers for anyone who has played. Names link to player pages, ranked players first.
| # | Player | How he got here | Pos | Class | Ht / Wt | Hometown | This season | Last season | Rank · Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Chase Walker | Returning | F | Senior | 6-9 · 265 | Columbus, OH | 9.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 13.7 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.1 ast (32 G) | #226 · +1.34 |
| 9 | Malik Messina-Moore | Transfer from Xavier | G | Senior | 6-5 · 200 | Ventura, CA | 17.0 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.5 ast (2 G) | 10.9 pts · 3.0 reb · 3.8 ast (33 G) | #539 · +0.82 |
| 3 | Mason Klabo | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-2 · 180 | Fargo, ND | 9.0 pts · 2.0 reb · 3.0 ast (2 G) | 5.6 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.2 ast (34 G) | #989 · +0.38 |
| 11 | Johnny Kinziger | Returning | G | Senior | 5-11 · 170 | De Pere, WI | 23.0 pts · 2.5 reb · 4.5 ast (2 G) | 11.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.3 ast (36 G) | #1115 · +0.30 |
| 1 | Deng Garang | Transfer from Le Moyne | G | Junior | 6-6 · 200 | Syracuse, NY | 6.5 pts · 3.0 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 10.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.0 ast (32 G) | #1912 · -0.08 |
| 24 | Zaxton King | Transfer from Missouri State | G | Junior | 6-3 · 185 | Lawrence, KS | 1.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 1.0 ast (2 G) | 7.2 pts · 2.0 reb · 1.6 ast (34 G) | #1953 · -0.10 |
| 33 | Louie Semona III | Transfer from Western Kentucky | F | Senior | 6-8 · 210 | Cincinnati, OH | 0.0 pts · 0.5 reb · 2.0 ast (2 G) | 2.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.7 ast (9 G) | #1978 · -0.11 |
| 5 | Demarion Burch | Transfer from Bradley | G | Senior | 6-4 · 205 | Milwaukee, WI | 7.0 pts · 3.0 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 8.8 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.0 ast (26 G) | #2263 · -0.22 |
| 13 | Ty Blake | Returning | G | Senior | 6-4 · 190 | Normal, IL | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 1.0 ast (1 G) | 0.9 pts · 0.2 reb · 0.0 ast (8 G) | #2386 · -0.26 |
| 25 | Jordan Williams | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-6 · 195 | Schaumburg, IL | 4.0 pts · 2.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | #3776 · -0.83 |
| 0 | Noah Cleveland | New to Division I | F | Sophomore | 6-9 · 240 | Bloomington, IL | 4.0 pts · 5.0 reb · 1.0 ast (2 G) | — | #3834 · -0.86 |
| 2 | Isaac Ericksen | Returning | G | Freshman | 6-8 · 205 | Cary, NC | Hasn't played | — | Not ranked yet |
| 4 | Leyton Wolf | Freshman | F | Freshman | 6-9 · 215 | Cedar Falls, IA | 4.0 pts · 2.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 12 | Matthew Szafoni | Freshman | F | Freshman | 6-9 · 210 | Chicago, IL | 2.0 pts · 4.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
| 15 | Nick Allen | Returning | F | Freshman | 6-11 · 235 | Bourbonnais, IL | 10.0 pts · 3.0 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
Schedule
Projected scores and win chances come from the current ratings and update every morning.
| Nov 2 |  atSaint Mary's | L85-90Box score → |
| Nov 5 | vsCentral State (OH)(non-D1) | W100-55Box score → |
| Still to play · computer projections | ||
| Nov 9 |  atPurdue | Projected 70-77ILST: 27% to winIllinois State: 27% to win Compare |
| Nov 13 |  atNorth Dakota State | Projected 80-72ILST: 76% to winIllinois State: 76% to win Compare |
| Nov 17 |  vsBellarmine | Projected 84-67ILST: 93% to winIllinois State: 93% to win Compare |
| Nov 19 | vsEureka(non-D1) | Upcoming |
| Nov 23 |  vs (N)Santa ClaraAcrisure Series | Projected 77-80ILST: 42% to winIllinois State: 42% to win Compare |
| Nov 24 |  vs (N)TulsaAcrisure Series | Projected 76-78ILST: 44% to winIllinois State: 44% to win Compare |
| Dec 2 |  atEastern Illinois | Projected 82-62ILST: 96% to winIllinois State: 96% to win Compare |
| Dec 5 |  atChicago State | Projected 81-66ILST: 90% to winIllinois State: 90% to win Compare |
| Dec 10 |  vsLong Beach State | Projected 81-66ILST: 89% to winIllinois State: 89% to win Compare |
| Dec 13 | vsNorth Dakota State | Projected 83-68ILST: 89% to winIllinois State: 89% to win Compare |
| Dec 17 |  atMurray StateConference | Projected 78-80ILST: 42% to winIllinois State: 42% to win Compare |
| Dec 21 |  vsBelmontConference | Projected 77-73ILST: 66% to winIllinois State: 66% to win Compare |
| Dec 29 |  atEvansvilleConference | Projected 80-67ILST: 86% to winIllinois State: 86% to win Compare |
| Jan 2 |  vsIndiana StateConference | Projected 81-68ILST: 87% to winIllinois State: 87% to win Compare |
| Jan 8 | atBelmontConference | Projected 74-76ILST: 45% to winIllinois State: 45% to win Compare |
| Jan 12 |  atNorthern IowaConference | Projected 74-73ILST: 54% to winIllinois State: 54% to win Compare |
| Jan 16 |  vsValparaisoConference | Projected 75-68ILST: 73% to winIllinois State: 73% to win Compare |
| Jan 18 |  vsDrakeConference | Projected 80-71ILST: 79% to winIllinois State: 79% to win Compare |
| Jan 24 | atBradleyConference | Projected 76-68ILST: 74% to winIllinois State: 74% to win Compare |
| Jan 27 |  vsSouthern IllinoisConference | Projected 83-71ILST: 85% to winIllinois State: 85% to win Compare |
| Jan 30 |  atUICConference | Projected 71-76ILST: 34% to winIllinois State: 34% to win Compare |
| Feb 3 | vsNorthern IowaConference | Projected 77-70ILST: 73% to winIllinois State: 73% to win Compare |
| Feb 6 | atIndiana StateConference | Projected 77-71ILST: 71% to winIllinois State: 71% to win Compare |
| Feb 9 | atValparaisoConference | Projected 72-71ILST: 53% to winIllinois State: 53% to win Compare |
| Feb 12 | vsMurray StateConference | Projected 81-77ILST: 64% to winIllinois State: 64% to win Compare |
| Feb 15 | vsUICConference | Projected 74-73ILST: 55% to winIllinois State: 55% to win Compare |
| Feb 18 | atSouthern IllinoisConference | Projected 80-74ILST: 69% to winIllinois State: 69% to win Compare |
| Feb 21 | vsEvansvilleConference | Projected 83-64ILST: 95% to winIllinois State: 95% to win Compare |
| Feb 24 | atDrakeConference | Projected 77-74ILST: 60% to winIllinois State: 60% to win Compare |
| Feb 28 | vsBradleyConference | Projected 79-65ILST: 88% to winIllinois State: 88% to win Compare |
MVC standings
| # | Team | Conf | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UIC | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 2 | Murray State | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | Belmont | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 4 | Valparaiso | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 5 | Drake | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Evansville | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 7 | Illinois State | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Northern Iowa | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Southern Illinois | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 10 | Indiana State | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 11 | Bradley | 0-0 | 1-1 |