College Basketball · ACC · 2026-27
North Carolina Tar Heels
2-0 · Coach Michael Malone
Power Rankings
#48▼4
Who is best right now.
+18.9points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I team
Last week: +18.4 (#44)
Preseason: #45
Full Power Rankings → Compare to another teamRating breakdown
Adjusted for every opponent and home court. Power = offense minus defense.
Projected record
18-14
- Conference record
- 9-10
- Conference title
- <1%
- Outright title
- <1%
- Luck
- +0.2
Actual results so far plus the rest of the seasonplayed out 10,000 times with the win chance for each game (non-Division I opponents count as 97% wins). The title is the regular-season crown; conference tournaments aren't included. Later rounds of holiday tournaments are added once the opponent is known.
Why #45 in the preseason
What the computer saw going in
- →Last season: #29 in the country (+23.6), 24-9.
- →17% of last season's minutes are back.
- →5 transfers in, led by Terrence Brown (Utah, 19.9 ppg), Angelo Brizzi (Buffalo, 14.4 ppg), Cameron Fens (South Dakota, 14.4 ppg). Transfers moving up a level are counted cautiously.
- →3 ranked freshmen: Maximo Adams (#26), Sayon Keita (#59), Kevin Thomas (#99).
- →Lost Seth Trimble (14 ppg, now at Louisville), Caleb Wilson (19.9 ppg), Henri Veesaar (17 ppg).
The preseason rating counts for about five games, then real results take over.
Teams like North Carolina
The closest matches across all 365 Division I teams, based on the current ratings.
This season
Everyone who has played, most minutes first: per-game numbers from the box scores, updated after every game.
| Player | G · GS | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neo AvdalasG · Sophomore · #501 ranked | 2 · 2 | 25.5 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 47.1 (8-17) | 33.3 (2-6) | 60.0 (3-5) |
| Terrence BrownG · Senior · #241 ranked | 2 · 2 | 24.0 | 17.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 45.5 (10-22) | 20.0 (1-5) | 77.8 (14-18) |
| Jarin StevensonF · Senior · #366 ranked | 2 · 2 | 22.0 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 42.9 (6-14) | 12.5 (1-8) | 55.6 (5-9) |
| Matt AbleG · Sophomore · #579 ranked | 2 · 2 | 21.5 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 64.3 (9-14) | 33.3 (2-6) | 66.7 (4-6) |
| Maximo AdamsF · Freshman · #325 ranked | 2 · 0 | 20.0 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 53.3 (8-15) | 42.9 (3-7) | 100.0 (2-2) |
| Jaydon YoungG · Senior · #1487 ranked | 2 · 0 | 17.0 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 46.2 (6-13) | 50.0 (6-12) | 75.0 (3-4) |
| Sayon KeitaC · Freshman · #974 ranked | 2 · 2 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 66.7 (4-6) | — (0-0) | 100.0 (2-2) |
| Angelo BrizziG · Senior · #822 ranked | 2 · 0 | 15.0 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50.0 (3-6) | 66.7 (2-3) | 62.5 (5-8) |
| Alex SamodurovF · Junior · #2909 ranked | 2 · 0 | 15.0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 66.7 (4-6) | 100.0 (1-1) | 100.0 (4-4) |
| Isaiah DenisG · Sophomore · #1070 ranked | 2 · 0 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 14.3 (2-14) | 14.3 (1-7) | 100.0 (4-4) |
| Kevin ThomasG · Freshman · #1685 ranked | 1 · 0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | 100.0 (2-2) |
| Evan SmithG · Senior · #838 ranked | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 100.0 (1-1) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| John HolbrookF · Junior · #1378 ranked | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Cade BennermanC · Sophomore | 1 · 0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
Projected rotation
The preseason model's minutes projection for each player with a track record (college stats or a recruiting rank), most minutes first. Players without one aren't projected here; This season above lists everyone who has played.
| Player | How he got here | Proj. min | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jarin StevensonF · Senior |  Returning | 25 | 8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast |
| Neo AvdalasG · Sophomore |  Transfer from Virginia Tech | 21 | 12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.5 ast |
| Matt AbleG · Sophomore |  Transfer from NC State | 20 | 8.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast |
| Terrence BrownG · Senior |  Transfer from Utah | 19 | 19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast |
| Angelo BrizziG · Senior |  Transfer from Buffalo | 16 | 14.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast |
| Cameron FensC · Senior |  Transfer from South Dakota | 15 | 14.4 pts · 8.7 reb · 0.8 ast |
| Maximo AdamsF · Freshman | Freshman · #26 recruit | 15 | — |
| Sayon KeitaC · Freshman | Freshman · #59 recruit | 11 | — |
| Kevin ThomasG · Freshman | Freshman · #99 recruit | 11 | — |
| Jaydon YoungG · Senior | Returning | 10 | 1.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast |
| Isaiah DenisG · Sophomore | Returning | 6 | 1.9 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.1 ast |
| Evan SmithG · Senior | Returning | 5 | 1.4 pts · 1 reb · 0.6 ast |
| John HolbrookF · Junior | Returning | 5 | 0.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0 ast |
Gone from last season: Seth Trimble (14 ppg, to 
Louisville), Caleb Wilson (19.9 ppg), Henri Veesaar (17 ppg), Luka Bogavac (9.8 ppg, to 
Oklahoma State), Derek Dixon (6.5 ppg, to 
Arizona), Kyan Evans (4 ppg, to 
Minnesota)
Roster
Everyone on this season's roster, with this season's numbers for anyone who has played. Names link to player pages, ranked players first.
| # | Player | How he got here | Pos | Class | Ht / Wt | Hometown | This season | Last season | Rank · Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrence Brown | Transfer from Utah | G | Senior | 6-3 · 180 | Minneapolis, MN | 17.5 pts · 3.0 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 19.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast (32 G) | #241 · +1.30 |
| 25 | Maximo Adams | Freshman | F | Freshman | 6-7 · 220 | Los Angeles, CA | 10.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | #325 · +1.16 |
| 15 | Jarin Stevenson | Returning | F | Senior | 6-10 · 220 | Chapel Hill, NC | 9.0 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | 8.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast (33 G) | #366 · +1.08 |
| 54 | Cameron Fens | Transfer from South Dakota | C | Senior | 7-0 · 255 | Dubuque, IA | Hasn't played | 14.4 pts · 8.7 reb · 0.8 ast (32 G) | #452 · +0.94 |
| 17 | Neo Avdalas | Transfer from Virginia Tech | G | Sophomore | 6-9 · 220 | Kalamata, Greece | 10.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.0 ast (2 G) | 12.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.5 ast (31 G) | #501 · +0.87 |
| 3 | Matt Able | Transfer from NC State | G | Sophomore | 6-5 · 200 | Baltimore, MD | 12.0 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | 8.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 0.9 ast (34 G) | #579 · +0.79 |
| 14 | Angelo Brizzi | Transfer from Buffalo | G | Senior | 6-3 · 200 | Warrenton, VA | 6.5 pts · 1.0 reb · 1.0 ast (2 G) | 14.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast (32 G) | #822 · +0.53 |
| 32 | Evan Smith | Returning | G | Senior | 6-1 · 200 | Charlotte, NC | 2.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 1.0 ast (1 G) | 1.4 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.6 ast (5 G) | #838 · +0.52 |
| 21 | Sayon Keita | Freshman | C | Freshman | 7-1 · 205 | Bamako, Mali | 5.0 pts · 3.0 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | #974 · +0.39 |
| 2 | Isaiah Denis | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-4 · 185 | Charlotte, NC | 4.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.5 ast (2 G) | 1.9 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.1 ast (10 G) | #1070 · +0.33 |
| 99 | John Holbrook | Returning | F | Junior | 6-8 · 230 | Hickory, NC | 0.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | 0.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.0 ast (5 G) | #1378 · +0.16 |
| 4 | Jaydon Young | Returning | G | Senior | 6-4 · 200 | Goldsboro, NC | 10.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | 1.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.3 ast (32 G) | #1487 · +0.11 |
| 5 | Kevin Thomas | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-6 · 205 | Fort Lauderdale, FL | 2.0 pts · 4.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | #1685 · +0.02 |
| 22 | Alex Samodurov | New to Division I | F | Junior | 6-11 · 225 | Evosmos, Greece | 6.5 pts · 5.0 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | #2909 · -0.45 |
| 30 | Malloy Smith | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-5 · 180 | Newport Beach, CA | Hasn't played | — | Not ranked yet |
| 35 | Cade Bennerman |  Transfer from Northwestern | C | Sophomore | 7-0 · 205 | Nashville, TN | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
Schedule
Projected scores and win chances come from the current ratings and update every morning.
| Nov 2 |  vsWestern Carolina | W80-72Box score → |
| Nov 6 |  vsWofford | W109-70Box score → |
| Still to play · computer projections | ||
| Nov 10 |  vsWyoming | Projected 83-73UNC: 81% to winNorth Carolina: 81% to win Compare |
| Nov 13 |  vsGeorgia | Projected 84-79UNC: 66% to winNorth Carolina: 66% to win Compare |
| Nov 20 |  vsMarshall | Projected 88-71UNC: 93% to winNorth Carolina: 93% to win Compare |
| Nov 23 |  vsMonmouth | Projected 85-68UNC: 93% to winNorth Carolina: 93% to win Compare |
| Nov 27 |  vs (N)#25West VirginiaDick Vitale Invitational pres. by Belk | Projected 73-76UNC: 41% to winNorth Carolina: 41% to win Compare |
| Dec 1 |  vs#18ArkansasACC/SEC Men's Challenge | Projected 81-83UNC: 42% to winNorth Carolina: 42% to win Compare |
| Dec 6 |  vsButler | Projected 84-76UNC: 75% to winNorth Carolina: 75% to win Compare |
| Dec 12 |  atGeorgetown | Projected 78-77UNC: 52% to winNorth Carolina: 52% to win Compare |
| Dec 15 | vs (N)NC StateConference · Tobacco Road Classic | Projected 78-80UNC: 44% to winNorth Carolina: 44% to win Compare |
| Dec 19 |  vs (N)KentuckyCBS Sports Classic | Projected 78-79UNC: 47% to winNorth Carolina: 47% to win Compare |
| Dec 21 |  vsThe Citadel | Projected 89-60UNC: 99% to winNorth Carolina: 99% to win Compare |
| Dec 30 |  vsCaliforniaConference | Projected 82-74UNC: 76% to winNorth Carolina: 76% to win Compare |
| Jan 2 |  atBoston CollegeConference | Projected 73-74UNC: 48% to winNorth Carolina: 48% to win Compare |
| Jan 5 | at#19LouisvilleConference | Projected 76-84UNC: 23% to winNorth Carolina: 23% to win Compare |
| Jan 9 | vsNC StateConference | Projected 80-78UNC: 55% to winNorth Carolina: 55% to win Compare |
| Jan 13 |  atFlorida StateConference | Projected 80-84UNC: 39% to winNorth Carolina: 39% to win Compare |
| Jan 16 |  vsStanfordConference | Projected 80-72UNC: 75% to winNorth Carolina: 75% to win Compare |
| Jan 19 |  vs#24VirginiaConference | Projected 78-79UNC: 49% to winNorth Carolina: 49% to win Compare |
| Jan 23 |  atSyracuseConference | Projected 77-78UNC: 45% to winNorth Carolina: 45% to win Compare |
| Jan 26 |  vsSMUConference | Projected 84-76UNC: 76% to winNorth Carolina: 76% to win Compare |
| Jan 30 |  vs (N)#4IllinoisNashville Hoops Showdown | Projected 76-86UNC: 18% to winNorth Carolina: 18% to win Compare |
| Feb 2 |  atNotre DameConference | Projected 77-78UNC: 50% to winNorth Carolina: 50% to win Compare |
| Feb 6 |  vsGeorgia TechConference | Projected 86-72UNC: 88% to winNorth Carolina: 88% to win Compare |
| Feb 8 | vs#19LouisvilleConference | Projected 79-81UNC: 43% to winNorth Carolina: 43% to win Compare |
| Feb 13 |  at#1DukeConference | Projected 69-86UNC: 8% to winNorth Carolina: 8% to win Compare |
| Feb 20 |  atWake ForestConference | Projected 79-75UNC: 66% to winNorth Carolina: 66% to win Compare |
| Feb 22 |  vs#23MiamiConference | Projected 77-78UNC: 49% to winNorth Carolina: 49% to win Compare |
| Feb 27 | atVirginia TechConference | Projected 76-80UNC: 37% to winNorth Carolina: 37% to win Compare |
| Mar 2 |  atPittsburghConference | Projected 76-77UNC: 48% to winNorth Carolina: 48% to win Compare |
| Mar 6 | vs#1DukeConference | Projected 72-82UNC: 20% to winNorth Carolina: 20% to win Compare |
ACC standings
| # | Team | Conf | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 2 | Louisville | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | Virginia | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 4 | NC State | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 5 | Virginia Tech | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 6 | Florida State | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 7 | North Carolina | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 8 | Syracuse | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 9 | Boston College | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 11 | Notre Dame | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 12 |  Clemson | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 13 | SMU | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 14 | Stanford | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 15 | California | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 16 | Georgia Tech | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 17 | Miami | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 18 | Wake Forest | 0-0 | 1-1 |