Power Rankings
#1–
Who is best right now.
+37.3points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I team
Last week: +36.4 (#1)
Preseason: #1
Full Power Rankings → Compare to another teamRating breakdown
Adjusted for every opponent and home court. Power = offense minus defense.
Projected record
28-4
- Conference record
- 16-2
- Conference title
- 90%
- Outright title
- 81%
- Luck
- 0.0
Actual results so far plus the rest of the seasonplayed out 10,000 times with the win chance for each game (non-Division I opponents count as 97% wins). The title is the regular-season crown; conference tournaments aren't included. Later rounds of holiday tournaments are added once the opponent is known.
Why #1 in the preseason
What the computer saw going in
- →Last season: #2 in the country (+40.8), 35-3.
- →43% of last season's minutes are back.
- →3 transfers in, led by John Blackwell (Wisconsin, 19.1 ppg), Jacob Theodosiou (Loyola Maryland, 13.1 ppg), Drew Scharnowski (Belmont, 10.7 ppg). Transfers moving up a level are counted cautiously.
- →5 ranked freshmen: Cameron Williams (#4), Deron Rippey Jr. (#13), Bryson Howard (#23).
- →Lost Cameron Boozer (22.5 ppg), Isaiah Evans (15 ppg), Maliq Brown (4.9 ppg).
The preseason rating counts for about five games, then real results take over.
Teams like Duke
The closest matches across all 365 Division I teams, based on the current ratings.
This season
Everyone who has played, most minutes first: per-game numbers from the box scores, updated after every game.
| Player | G · GS | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ngongba IIC · Junior · #10 ranked | 2 · 2 | 24.5 | 19.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 68.4 (13-19) | 50.0 (2-4) | 62.5 (10-16) |
| John BlackwellG · Senior · #102 ranked | 2 · 2 | 23.5 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 40.0 (6-15) | 30.0 (3-10) | 75.0 (3-4) |
| Dame SarrF · Sophomore · #342 ranked | 2 · 2 | 22.0 | 14.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 100.0 (9-9) | — (0-0) | 71.4 (10-14) |
| Cayden BoozerG · Sophomore · #70 ranked | 2 · 2 | 21.0 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 61.5 (8-13) | 50.0 (1-2) | 60.0 (3-5) |
| Sebastian WilkinsF · Sophomore · #1693 ranked | 2 · 0 | 21.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 42.9 (3-7) | 0.0 (0-1) | 50.0 (4-8) |
| Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeC · Freshman · #413 ranked | 2 · 2 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 46.2 (6-13) | 28.6 (2-7) | 83.3 (10-12) |
| Caleb FosterG · Senior · #223 ranked | 2 · 0 | 18.5 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 53.8 (7-13) | 42.9 (3-7) | 100.0 (2-2) |
| Deron Rippey Jr.G · Freshman · #195 ranked | 2 · 0 | 18.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 45.5 (5-11) | 33.3 (2-6) | 100.0 (3-3) |
| Cameron WilliamsF · Freshman · #56 ranked | 2 · 0 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 60.0 (3-5) | 50.0 (1-2) | — (0-0) |
| Bryson HowardG · Freshman · #421 ranked | 2 · 0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 36.4 (4-11) | 25.0 (1-4) | 100.0 (3-3) |
| Drew ScharnowskiF · Senior · #98 ranked | 1 · 0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 100.0 (2-2) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Maxime MeyerC · Freshman · #1765 ranked | 2 · 0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 33.3 (1-3) | 0.0 (0-1) | — (0-0) |
| Jacob TheodosiouG · Senior · #1557 ranked | 1 · 0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
| Nick ArnoldG · Freshman | 1 · 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — (0-0) | — (0-0) | — (0-0) |
Projected rotation
The preseason model's minutes projection for each player with a track record (college stats or a recruiting rank), most minutes first. Players without one aren't projected here; This season above lists everyone who has played.
| Player | How he got here | Proj. min | Last season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron WilliamsF · Freshman | Freshman · #4 recruit | 24 | — |
| Cayden BoozerG · Sophomore |  Returning | 23 | 7.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.9 ast |
| Dame SarrF · Sophomore | Returning | 22 | 6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast |
| Caleb FosterG · Senior | Returning | 22 | 8.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.8 ast |
| Patrick Ngongba IIC · Junior | Returning | 22 | 10.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 2 ast |
| John BlackwellG · Senior |  Transfer from Wisconsin | 21 | 19.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.3 ast |
| Bryson HowardG · Freshman | Freshman · #23 recruit | 21 | — |
| Deron Rippey Jr.G · Freshman | Freshman · #13 recruit | 21 | — |
| Drew ScharnowskiF · Senior |  Transfer from Belmont | 16 | 10.7 pts · 6 reb · 2.6 ast |
| Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeC · Freshman | Freshman · #59 recruit | 11 | — |
| Jacob TheodosiouG · Senior |  Transfer from Loyola Maryland | 10 | 13.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast |
| Maxime MeyerC · Freshman | Freshman · #119 recruit | 9 | — |
Gone from last season: Cameron Boozer (22.5 ppg), Isaiah Evans (15 ppg), Maliq Brown (4.9 ppg), Nik Khamenia (5.7 ppg, to 
UConn), Darren Harris (3.3 ppg, to 
Indiana)
Roster
Everyone on this season's roster, with this season's numbers for anyone who has played. Names link to player pages, ranked players first.
| # | Player | How he got here | Pos | Class | Ht / Wt | Hometown | This season | Last season | Rank · Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Patrick Ngongba II | Returning | C | Junior | 6-11 · 250 | Manassas, VA | 19.0 pts · 8.0 reb · 1.0 ast (2 G) | 10.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.0 ast (32 G) | #10 · +3.02 |
| 14 | Cameron Williams | Freshman | F | Freshman | 7-0 · 215 | Phoenix, AZ | 3.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | #56 · +2.05 |
| 2 | Cayden Boozer | Returning | G | Sophomore | 6-4 · 195 | Miami, FL | 10.0 pts · 3.0 reb · 7.5 ast (2 G) | 7.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.9 ast (38 G) | #70 · +1.95 |
| 8 | Drew Scharnowski | Transfer from Belmont | F | Senior | 6-10 · 240 | Burlington, IL | 4.0 pts · 2.0 reb · 1.0 ast (1 G) | 10.7 pts · 6.0 reb · 2.6 ast (30 G) | #98 · +1.85 |
| 13 | John Blackwell | Transfer from Wisconsin | G | Senior | 6-5 · 205 | Bloomfield Hills, MI | 9.0 pts · 2.0 reb · 1.0 ast (2 G) | 19.1 pts · 5.1 reb · 2.3 ast (34 G) | #102 · +1.82 |
| 3 | Deron Rippey Jr. | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-3 · 185 | Brooklyn, NY | 7.5 pts · 2.0 reb · 1.5 ast (2 G) | — | #195 · +1.45 |
| 1 | Caleb Foster | Returning | G | Senior | 6-5 · 200 | Harrisburg, NC | 9.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.0 ast (2 G) | 8.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.8 ast (33 G) | #223 · +1.35 |
| 7 | Dame Sarr | Returning | F | Sophomore | 6-8 · 200 | Oderzo, Italy | 14.0 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.0 ast (2 G) | 6.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.1 ast (38 G) | #342 · +1.12 |
| 30 | Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje | Freshman | C | Freshman | 7-2 · 250 | Oviedo, FL | 12.0 pts · 6.0 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | #413 · +1.00 |
| 12 | Bryson Howard | Freshman | G | Freshman | 6-4 · 190 | Dallas, TX | 6.0 pts · 1.0 reb · 0.0 ast (2 G) | — | #421 · +0.99 |
| 26 | Jacob Theodosiou | Transfer from Loyola Maryland | G | Senior | 6-4 · 205 | Waterloo, ON | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | 13.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.7 ast (27 G) | #1557 · +0.07 |
| 5 | Sebastian Wilkins | New to Division I | F | Sophomore | 6-8 · 220 | Boston, MA | 5.0 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.0 ast (2 G) | — | #1693 · +0.02 |
| 15 | Maxime Meyer | Freshman | C | Freshman | 7-1 · 225 | Toronto, ON | 1.0 pts · 2.0 reb · 0.5 ast (2 G) | — | #1765 · -0.02 |
| 55 | Nick Arnold | Freshman | G | Freshman | 5-11 · 175 | Mooresville, NC | 0.0 pts · 0.0 reb · 0.0 ast (1 G) | — | Not ranked yet |
Schedule
Projected scores and win chances come from the current ratings and update every morning.
| Nov 2 |  vsArmy | W84-50Box score → |
| Nov 5 |  vsCoastal Carolina | W113-52Box score → |
| Still to play · computer projections | ||
| Nov 10 |  vs (N)#6Michigan StateState Farm Champions Classic | Projected 78-74DUKE: 65% to winDuke: 65% to win Compare |
| Nov 13 |  vsSIU Edwardsville | Projected 90-56DUKE: 99% to winDuke: 99% to win Compare |
| Nov 17 |  vs#4Illinois | Projected 82-76DUKE: 70% to winDuke: 70% to win Compare |
| Nov 21 |  vs (N)Washington StateAcrisure Series | Projected 90-62DUKE: 99% to winDuke: 99% to win Compare |
| Nov 25 | vs (N)#9UConn | Projected 77-71DUKE: 69% to winDuke: 69% to win Compare |
| Dec 1 |  at#2FloridaACC/SEC Men's Challenge | Projected 76-78DUKE: 43% to winDuke: 43% to win Compare |
| Dec 4 |  vsHarvard | Projected 86-59DUKE: 99% to winDuke: 99% to win Compare |
| Dec 8 |  vs (N)GeorgiaJimmy V Classic | Projected 87-72DUKE: 90% to winDuke: 90% to win Compare |
| Dec 15 |  vsCampbell | Projected 95-57DUKE: 99% to winDuke: 99% to win Compare |
| Dec 17 |  vsGrambling | Projected 95-57DUKE: 99% to winDuke: 99% to win Compare |
| Dec 21 |  vs (N)#17Texas Tech | Projected 76-69DUKE: 73% to winDuke: 73% to win Compare |
| Dec 30 |  atGeorgia TechConference | Projected 87-67DUKE: 96% to winDuke: 96% to win Compare |
| Jan 2 |  vsCaliforniaConference | Projected 87-65DUKE: 97% to winDuke: 97% to win Compare |
| Jan 5 |  atSyracuseConference | Projected 81-70DUKE: 84% to winDuke: 84% to win Compare |
| Jan 9 |  vsPittsburghConference | Projected 83-65DUKE: 95% to winDuke: 95% to win Compare |
| Jan 13 |  vsStanfordConference | Projected 84-64DUKE: 96% to winDuke: 96% to win Compare |
| Jan 16 |  atBoston CollegeConference | Projected 77-65DUKE: 85% to winDuke: 85% to win Compare |
| Jan 20 |  atWake ForestConference | Projected 84-66DUKE: 94% to winDuke: 94% to win Compare |
| Jan 23 |  vsNotre DameConference | Projected 84-65DUKE: 95% to winDuke: 95% to win Compare |
| Jan 30 |  atClemsonConference | Projected 81-69DUKE: 86% to winDuke: 86% to win Compare |
| Feb 1 |  vs#23MiamiConference | Projected 82-69DUKE: 86% to winDuke: 86% to win Compare |
| Feb 6 |  at#24VirginiaConference | Projected 79-73DUKE: 71% to winDuke: 71% to win Compare |
| Feb 9 |  atSMUConference | Projected 86-71DUKE: 90% to winDuke: 90% to win Compare |
| Feb 13 |  vsNorth CarolinaConference | Projected 86-69DUKE: 92% to winDuke: 92% to win Compare |
| Feb 16 |  vsFlorida StateConference | Projected 88-72DUKE: 93% to winDuke: 93% to win Compare |
| Feb 20 |  vs (N)#11Gonzaga | Projected 81-75DUKE: 70% to winDuke: 70% to win Compare |
| Feb 24 |  at#19LouisvilleConference | Projected 80-76DUKE: 66% to winDuke: 66% to win Compare |
| Feb 27 |  vsNC StateConference | Projected 84-70DUKE: 89% to winDuke: 89% to win Compare |
| Mar 1 | vs#24VirginiaConference | Projected 83-70DUKE: 87% to winDuke: 87% to win Compare |
| Mar 6 | atNorth CarolinaConference | Projected 82-72DUKE: 81% to winDuke: 81% to win Compare |
ACC standings
| # | Team | Conf | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 2 | Louisville | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | Virginia | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 4 | NC State | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 5 |  Virginia Tech | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 6 | Florida State | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 7 | North Carolina | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 8 | Syracuse | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 9 | Boston College | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 11 | Notre Dame | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 12 | Clemson | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 13 | SMU | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 14 | Stanford | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 15 | California | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 16 | Georgia Tech | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| 17 | Miami | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 18 | Wake Forest | 0-0 | 1-1 |